- 2 days ago
The Three-Headed Monster Pushing Capital to the Dollar
Wednesday, September 3, 2025 By: Martin Armstrong
This is only day one of September, but we may be staring into the eyes of a cycle inversion in what is shaping up to be a race between Sovereign Debt Defaults in Europe and their quest for World War III. They have said to hell with Trump; rumors are that NATO is preparing to send in troops to Ukraine under the pretense of peacekeepers.
In 2010, Greece applied for an IMF bailout, which was widely considered the event that ignited the full-blown Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, sparking a powerful contagion that spread throughout the currency union. Capital traders, hedge funds, and institutional investors (the "markets") didn't just look at other countries—they actively reassessed the risk of the entire Eurozone periphery. The bailout proved that sovereign default within the Eurozone was a real possibility. Investors realized that if it could happen to Greece, it could happen to other highly indebted countries. They started aggressively searching for the next weakest link.
France is in trouble and is prone to major civil unrest because it has the HIGHEST public social spending within the Eurozone. This includes government expenses on healthcare, pensions, unemployment benefits, family support, housing, and active labor market policies.
Based on this definition, the consistent leader in the Eurozone (and in fact, the entire OECD) is France. This is why they are on the brink of economic collapse. Here’s a detailed breakdown using the most recent data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The Highest Social Spenders in the Eurozone
The standard metric is social spending as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
France: 31.2% of GDP
Why: France has an extensive and expensive welfare state (État-providence). Its system includes universal healthcare, generous state pensions, substantial family allowances (to encourage birth rates), and strong unemployment benefits. This model is financed through high social contributions from employers and employees.
Belgium: 28.9% of GDP
Finland: 28.7% of GDP
Italy: 28.2% of GDP
Austria: 27.8% of GDP
For comparison, the Eurozone average is around 26.5% of GDP, and the OECD average is about 20.5% of GDP.
We had a Directional Change in August on the French 10-year debt, and look at the volatility from September peaking in June of 2026. We still do NOT see a sustainable crash in the US markets. The capital continues to flee, and now we have a problem with two factors overlapping between Sovereign Defaults by the 2nd largest economy in the EU. Merz is steering Germany in the same direction, despite NATO's demand that 5% of GDP be squandered on them. The third show may slam down from the three-headed beast, and that is the intention to cancel the paper currencies of Europe and move to a CBDC to achieve absolute control over the spending of everyone in the Eurozone. This may unfold by January. They are moving at top speed.
Houston - We Have a Problem
Friday, August 29, 2025 By: Martin Armstrong
We are in a race between Sovereign Defaults in Europe and World War III. NATO, the UK, and the EU are desperate to keep the attention on Ukraine as a diversion from the crumbling economic conditions within the EU. Zelensky has used the people of Ukraine as pawns, as did Saddam Huselin and even Hamas. You place your military production assets in residential areas and use civilians as cover. I have warned that the ONLY way to prevent war is that Zelensky MUST be dragged out of Ukraine in chains and let the people decide the fate of their own country - not NATO, UK, and the EU, who are all acting in their own self-interest.
Zelensky is already calling the attack in Kiev an attack on all of Europe and the United States, calling, of course, for World War III. All he has to do is honor the Minsk Agreement, and the war would come to an end. Claiming his constitution forbade the surrender of any territory, Ukraine also negotiated the Minsk Agreement in bad faith. Let's be blunt. Europe DESPERATELY needs this war, and Ukraine is the distraction from the economic chaos they have created with COVID, Climate Change, Sanctions on Russia, and then the Migrant Crisis. Every decision made by the leaders of the EU has been a total disaster economically.
France is in yet another political crisis after Prime Minister Francois Bayrou gambled on a confidence vote, with little hope of any quick solution to fix its ailing public finances, whether a new government or a snap parliamentary election comes next. The French markets tumbled after Bayrou's announcement with his unexpected move to seek a September 8 confidence vote on his debt-cutting plan. The main opposition parties made it very clear that they would vote against him and his minority government, meaning it is all but sure to fall, barring a deal the opposition said would not happen.
Now there is fear with that Macron is so desperate to create World War III he believes will save France, that he may invoke Article 16 of the French Constitution of the Fifth Republic (1958) grants the President of the Republic exceptional emergency powers in the event of a grave and immediate threat to the institutions of the Republic, the independence of the nation, the integrity of its territory, or the execution of its international commitments, and when the regular functioning of the constitutional public authorities is interrupted. This would allow him to be a dictator like Zelensky. It is one of the most powerful executive emergency clauses in any modern democracy.
If Prime Minister François Bayrou loses the upcoming confidence vote on September 8th, 2025, it would significantly impact President Emmanuel Macron's ability to govern France effectively. Bayrou's government is already in a precarious position due to the fragmented National Assembly following the 2024 legislative elections, where no single bloc secured a majority. If he resigns as expected after a loss, Macron would need to appoint yet another prime minister—Bayrou being the third since those elections—potentially deepening the ongoing political crisis and leaving the country without a stable executive for an extended period. The computer has been targeting mid-September, starting the week of the 8th. That is a turning point for the Euro, and look at the volatility. What I was concerned about was that war tensions would rise from September, but it appears to be an admixture of war and sovereign defaults.
In France's semi-presidential system, the president holds substantial powers in areas such as foreign policy, defense, and EU affairs, which Macron could continue to exercise. However, domestic governance—such as passing budgets, reforms, or legislation—relies heavily on a prime minister who can command parliamentary support or at least avoid no-confidence motions. A Bayrou defeat would highlight Macron's challenges in navigating the hung parliament, where his centrist alliance lacks the seats to govern alone and must negotiate with left-wing or right-wing factions that have repeatedly toppled previous governments. This instability could stall key priorities, such as the 2026 budget, economic reforms, and debt management, forcing Macron into a more caretaker role until a viable coalition or new elections resolve the impasse.
If no new prime minister can secure confidence, Macron could theoretically dissolve the National Assembly again and call snap elections, as the one-year constitutional cooldown from his June 2024 dissolution has passed by August 2025. However, this risks further empowering opposition groups, such as the far-right National Rally or the left-wing New Popular Front, potentially eroding Macron's influence even more ahead of his term ending in 2027. Overall, while Macron's formal authority as president remains intact, repeated government collapses would undermine his practical capacity to lead and implement his agenda.
The French semi-presidential system is different from a parliamentary system like the UK or Italy. The National Assembly can pass a vote of no confidence to bring down the Prime Minister and the government, but this does not affect the President. Other than resigning, impeachment for a Breach of Duties (Article 68 of the Constitution) is the only avenue to remove Macron. This is the primary method for removing a sitting president, but it is designed to be very difficult. The French Parliament must be convened as the Haute Cour (High Court), and the removal proposal must be voted on by 2/3s - an absolute majority in both the National Assembly and the Senate is required for removal. The grounds can only be invoked for a specific, narrow reason: "a breach of his duties manifestly incompatible with the exercise of his mandate." So, it does not appear likely that they can remove Macron.
Speculation about IMF bailouts for France and Britain has become the talk of the town. This time it’s Britain and France rather than Greece. Many are raising the alarm that London could soon face a financial crisis that would require a bailout from abroad. The French Finance Minister Eric Lombard also warned that his country might need an IMF bailout.
This is old ground for Britain since it required an IMF bailout back in 1976. Britain has suffered mini financial panics periodically, thanks to the socialists when they take the wheel. Of course, Britain never learns from its past mistakes, and LABOUR always tries the same old routines and never looks at history. The finances of Europe as a whole are on an unsustainable fiscal or economic path. France is relatively new to this game, but it is jumping in both feet and headfirst as Macron is more interested in leading the EU than his own people, with reckless disregard for humanity. Mr. Lombard is the second official in recent months to raise the prospect of an IMF package for France; Public Finance Minister Amélie de Montchalin floated the idea in June.
As a trader, I have witnessed how CONTAGIONS work. I warned them when they were creating the Euro that if they FAILED to consolidate the debt, then if one member got in trouble, then this would set off a contagion. President Herbert Hoover explained the economic contagion that occurred in 1931. This is the MAJOR risk here in the Eurozone.
When Greece formally requested IMF and EU financial assistance in April 2010, a selling contagion was indeed evident in global financial markets, particularly in European sovereign bonds, bank stocks, and the Euro. Greece triggered the contagion on April 23rd, 2010. Greece requested a €45 billion joint EU–IMF bailout after its borrowing costs spiked and markets doubted its ability to refinance debt. Investors quickly began dumping not only Greek bonds but also those of other Eurozone “periphery” countries — Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and Italy (later collectively referred to as the PIIGS). Yields on their bonds rose sharply, reflecting fears of default and potential euro breakup.
European banks, especially in Germany and France, held large amounts of Greek and southern European debt. Concerns over losses led to heavy selling of their shares and higher interbank lending spreads. The Euro fell steeply against the U.S. dollar, losing about 20% of its value between late 2009 and mid-2010, as investors shifted into safe-haven assets.
Stock markets worldwide, not just in Europe, saw sharp sell-offs due to fears of systemic contagion. The turbulence culminated in the “Flash Crash” of May 6, 2010, partly linked to Greece-driven risk aversion and liquidity stresses.
Clearly, the Greek IMF loan request didn’t just affect Athens. It triggered a broader risk-off contagion across Europe and global markets, highlighting the fragility of confidence in sovereign debt and banking stability during the post-2008 recovery.
There is a significant risk of a financial contagion spreading across the Eurozone if France requires an IMF bailout, primarily due to its status as one of the bloc's largest economies and the interconnected nature of European debt markets. Contagion in this context refers to a scenario where financial distress in one country triggers rising borrowing costs, investor panic, or fiscal instability in others, potentially leading to a broader crisis reminiscent of the 2010-2012 Eurozone debt turmoil.
France's Current Vulnerabilities
France is facing severe fiscal challenges that have increased the likelihood of needing external assistance. Its public debt is projected to reach around 115% of GDP in 2025, with the IMF forecasting a deficit of 6.1% by 2030—the worst in the Eurozone. Political instability, including the risk of government collapse under President Emmanuel Macron, has exacerbated this situation, with French Finance Minister Eric Lombard recently warning that "a risk exists" of an IMF bailout if the deficits aren't addressed. This comes amid a projected "debt explosion" that could potentially reach €3.2 trillion (approximately £2.85 trillion), driven by high spending and stalled reforms. Earlier in 2025, similar alerts from budget officials highlighted the danger of EU or IMF oversight if finances aren't stabilized. Borrowing costs have already risen, with France becoming one of Europe's weakest economic links despite its cornerstone role.
All said, the Sovereign Debt Crisis impacting Europe is monumental. It has been the driving force behind the constant beating of the drums for war as a distraction. Despite all the claims of de-dollarization, between war and the European crisis in debt, thanks to the worst fiscal mismanagement perhaps in modern history, the dollar still looks to be the best. I would be deeply concerned that the EU will cancel its currency and adopt a CBDC as soon as possible to impose total capital controls.
If France seeks an IMF bailout—unprecedented for a major Eurozone founder—it will amplify systemic risks throughout the Eurozone, and Germany will not be far behind, thanks to Merz. A loss of investor confidence in France will lead to spikes in sovereign bond yields, with potential contagion to other high-debt nations, such as Italy or Spain. A political stalemate already risks broader financial stress in the Eurozone, as underlying budget dynamics make investors wary of the region's stability. This is compounded by France's strained finances, which have sidelined it from Europe's investor optimism in 2025. The mere fact that France and Britain are even considering an IMF bailout warns that the potential buyers of debt are starting to flee. I have warned countless times that governments go into default in these types of PONZI schemes when they cannot sell the new debt to pay off the old.
Interconnected Banks and Sovereigns present a MAJOR RISK.
The deep ties between banks and sovereign debt mean French distress could transmit risks across borders, as evidenced by recent IMF studies on bank-sovereign linkages. A bailout scenario might strain the IMF's resources, especially if paired with similar issues in the UK, potentially leading to continent-wide contagion. Without mechanisms such as debt mutualization, the Eurozone remains vulnerable, as the IMF's role in past crises (e.g., Greece) underscores how one member's bailout can erode trust in the currency union. This is what I warned about in my 1998 proposal for structuring the Euro. Simultaneous fiscal woes in France and Britain will only trigger wider market turmoil, with rising yields affecting multiple economies.
While no bailout has been formally requested as of August 29, 2025, the warnings from French officials and market reactions indicate this risk is escalating. Mitigating factors could include EU fiscal rules or domestic reforms, but failure to act could indeed spark a chain reaction.
Nevertheless, 2026 is a PANIC CYCLE YEAR for war and the Euro. We are looking at the collapse of the Eurozone as soon as 2027-2028.
If We Cannot Prevent War, Can We Reduce the Amplitude?
Friday, August 8, 2025 By: Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Please a question about last nights private blog.
You have repeatedly said you can't beat Socrates but last night you said keep calling your congressman to hopefully affect the outcome of Trump's upcoming meeting with Putin.
I would think if Europe, NATO, Neocons, Zelensky and the whole deep state want war, an agreement between Tump and Putin would be moot. Your past video of Ms. Kallas saying if Europe is not included and in agreement they will not honor any truce.
Two questions. You have said the markets should turn down and the geopolitical scene heats up after August 18. Is that not a possibility now?
Is it possible to affect the outcome of Socrates forecasts or is it that time is needed for events to unfold to interpret Socrates forecasts accurately?
I'm sure readers would be interested in your clarification.
Thank you,Alex
ANSWER: If we honestly look around the world, it is like all the old grudges are resurfacing. We cannot prevent the cycle. It is far too complex and interrelated and interconnected. It is impossible to stop it. I have tried so many times, and I always fail, just as a politician cannot create a booming economy when the rest of the world is imploding. Economist are NEVER right on their forecasts (1) because they ignore cycles and assume it is random, and (2) they ignore banking as if it is just a zero-sum game as an intermediate. All banks create money simply by leveraging. I "deposit" money in a bank (which is really an unsecured loan), and they lend that to you, but both of our accounts now show $100, doubling the money supply. This is all book entries, which are entirely different from a business or corporation. This failure to understand banking defeats all the economic models. People think the Fed creates money and want to shut down the Fed, and that money should be created by the Treasury. To achieve that, you have to terminate banking.
Now, that said, the reason I refused to hand over the source code to my model is that I learned that I could increase the amplitude of an event, but not prevent it. I fear that the Neocons would use the model to apply pressure if you know the correct time and bring down governments. All the major booms take place because CAPITAL CONCENTRATES in a particular stock, sector, or nation.
The CIA even acknowledged that I had invented capital flow analysis decades before anyone even thought about the idea. That was because I was a real International Hedge Fund Manager, and I could see how capital rushed around the globe. I saw it in ancient sources, but lived in the trading back in the 1970s-1980s.
I warned President Regan back in 1985 that they would cause a crash by 1987 if you lowered the value of the dollar by 40%. Here are the capital flows from the 1987 Crash. Most economists were baffled by the 1989 Tokyo Bubble. Real estate was outrageous; the Japanese were buying property around the world just as Americans were buying London in 1985 when the pound crashed to $1.03 from $2.40. The Japanese banks at the time were listed as the biggest in the world. They would lend on the real estate, and this was why you could create a bubble because it was all credit-created money.
It is capital CONCENTRATION that creates the BOOMS and the flight of capital that causes the BUST. We cannot alter the cycle. I believe what is possible to influence the AMPLITUDE. You may be able to transform a recession into a major recession as the bankers did for 2007-2009.
I hope that this war cycle aims to reduce the Amplitude. Europe wants war, and there is no stopping that. Zelensky does not want peace, he just hates Russians and has been destroying Ukraine, trying to drag everyone with him to destroy Russia completely. Meanwhile, you will see wars escalate next year on a global basis.
Will this become nuclear? Yes, of course. We are most likely looking at tactical atomic weapons. I am trying to keep the US out of this war or at least minimize our presence. But I cannot alter the cycle. War is coming and it will escalate in 2026.
NATO - TRUMP - WAR
Friday, July 18, 2025 By: Martin Armstrong
In July 2025, Trump reiterated his dissatisfaction with Putin's actions regarding Ukraine. He announced plans to deliver advanced weapons to Ukraine and threatened to impose severe tariffs on Russia if a ceasefire was not reached within 50 days. This marked a significant shift in his foreign policy approach, moving from a more conciliatory stance to a more aggressive one.
Trump's 50-day threat takes us into September, when our Computer has been projecting THE MOST IMPORTANT TURNING POINT in the game of war. This is not a TV show like Let's Make a Deal, where dramatic plays are made. Zelensky has outlawed the Russian language and their religion. Even the Pope had come out against Zelensky for outlawing Orthodox Christianity. Sources are saying that Zelensky's thugs have been beating Orthodox Priests. This is another Neocon War, and this one will not end well for the West. Let's be real for one damn second. These Neocons have lost EVERY SINGLE WAR since WWII. The national debt is not even for socialism - the majority has been for war.
“The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. ... its object is not the victory ... but to keep the very structure of society intact.”
― George Orwell
Trump's threats and recent policy shifts reflect a significant shift in his approach to Russia. His administration is now focused on holding Russia solely accountable for the Ukraine war, indicating a willingness to escalate tensions right into World War III, even if unintentional. What this is all about is giving Putin 50 days, because Ukraine is getting down to that last man standing. I reported NATO was looking to send in 250,000 troops to directly engage in war with Russia. There was a Ukraine Recovery Conference 7/10-11, which committed to hand Ukraine another $12 billion.
Ukraine is near collapse. That is what this 50-day period is all about. I reported that NATO plans to deploy 250,000 troops. They are not about to let Russia win. Putin is going to have to face reality. He has been sitting on his hands. They have done everything to try to get him to attack anything in NATO. They are getting impatient.
NATO is discussing its path to enter the war, citing that it does not matter if Ukraine is a NATO member or not. NATO invaded Bosnia in 1995 and then Kosovo in 1999. Neither were NATO members. NATO intervened in Kosovo in 1999 primarily to stop the humanitarian crisis and ethnic cleansing perpetrated by Serbian forces under Slobodan Milošević against the ethnic Albanian population in Kosovo. Here we have ethnic cleansing by Ukrainians of non-Ukrainians, including Russians. NATO bombed the Serbs because they were pro-Russian. Here, NATO is supporting the Ukrainian ethnic cleansing because they are killing Russians.
Trump asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky if he could strike Moscow and St. Petersburg if Washington supplied the necessary weapons, according to new reports on a recent call between the two leaders. Of course, the White House said Trump's remarks had been taken out of context and has been trying to backtrack.
The Financial Times and The Washington Post, both citing anonymous sources familiar with the call, reported that Trump had encouraged Zelensky to strike deeper into Russia to increase the pressure on President Vladimir Putin. Trump said he wanted to "make them feel the pain," as he put it on the July 4 call, the Financial Times reported, to force Russia into peace negotiations. Zelensky said Ukraine could hit the cities if the U.S. supplied the weapons, per the Post.
"The Financial Times is notorious for taking words wildly out of context to get clicks because their paper is dying," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement to Newsweek.
"President Trump was merely asking a question, not encouraging further killing. He's working tirelessly to stop the killing and end this war."
However, reports have surfaced that a day after President Trump allegedly inquired secretly if Ukraine could strike Moscow, Russian media and officials noted Ukrainian drones approaching various regions on the night of July 17, including Moscow. Ukraine's military came out and said that they complied and conducted an extensive drone assault on Moscow and St. Petersburg. Making Putin "feel pain" by killing more civilians is not even in compliance with the law of war.
I believe that Zelensky tried to assassinate Putin because Putin is the smartest man at the table, and he has been very restrained and has not attacked anything in NATO, for he knows what that means. Zelensky tried to assassinate him because he would surely be followed by Medvedev, who is a Neocon and would strike and respond emotionally.
The Daily Mirror is reporting that Medvedev has called on Vladimir Putin to consider pre-emptive strikes against the US and its allies in response to Donald Trump's 'theatrical' 50-day ceasefire demand. That is a logical Neocon move. Take out the major capitals of Europe - Kiev, London, Paris, Berlin, Frankfurt, and Brussels, and perhaps Washington and New York City, all in one go. In a game of Monopoly, you give up two properties for 8.
The arrogance of Trump is becoming alarming. He is listening to the Neocons who think they can do whatever to Russia, and somehow, Russia is powerless ever to respond. Trump wants from Congress "a sledgehammer" available to him "to go after Putin's economy and all those countries who prop up the Putin war machine." So, that will promote what the ECM is projecting - a major global recession into 2028. Just as the sanctions on Russia destroyed the German economy, imposing such sanctions on Russia, China, and India, just for starters, will also lead to a sharp recession in the USA.
In case he missed the news, China has welcomed a Russian proposal for the restoration of a TRIUMVIRATE alliance with India, stating that cooperation would be in their interests and contribute to peace and security, raising the prospect of a revitalized alliance that could challenge U.S. influence. The three largest countries on the Eurasian land mass first floated the idea back in the 1990s. Trump said he was considering a 100% secondary tariff on countries trading with Russia unless Putin makes peace in 50 days, as he hardens his stance against Moscow, a significant shift in tactic after months of softer engagement, which did not stop the war. He also said he would send more Patriot air defense missiles to Ukraine, and that European NATO allies would fund more "sophisticated" offensive American weapons for Kyiv, putting fresh pressure on Russia.
Stunning WW III Prophecy by St Paisios (Greek Orthodox)
Fulfilled Prophecies
These prophecies were made in the 80s and early 90s St Paisias he passed away in 1994.
1-Turks they will close the Bosporus Straits. Turks did close the Straits in 2022 and it just so happens to coincide and it was done for the reason of the war in the Ukraine with Russia and the
2-He predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union and this was a prediction back in the 80s
3-Yugoslavia would break up into multiple countries and this also happened in 1991.
4- EU prophecy. England would pull the rug from under the EU and of course England voted to leave the EU I believe it was early 2017
5- There will be a manufactured illness in 2020. (covid19) Great Cathedral of Constantinople which is currently part of istanbul will become a mosque in the same year and the reference to the same year is regarding the same year that this man made illness becomes evident and that also occurred in 2020 as per the prediction.
6- New ID cards for Greek citizens. he predicted that and that came to fruition last year in 2023
7- The mayor of istanbul will become president and keep tension low between turkey and Greece and the mayor of Istanbul is erdogan and he's current president of Turkey and he became president in 2014 and he did keep tensions low between turkey and Greece.
Future Prophecies-Events
1-When Erdogan , the current president of Turkey, is replaced, Turkey will start a war with Greece. It was stated that this would be very quick as soon as a new government is installed. Then the new government will start a war with Greece this will precipitate the World War 3.
2-Now there may be more involved with this than just this conflict and the way the prophecy unfolds is he says: Russia will attempt to cross the Straits the vociferous Straits and will be attacked by Turks who of course will attempt to defend the Straits. Russia according to prophecy will shatter Turkey. It sounds a direct conflict it'll be a direct attack of turkey perhaps on the fleet the Russian Fleet as it attempts to go through the Straits. So the question is why does it want to go through the Straits and St paisias he was very clear that the Russians were not coming to help Greece they had some other interest. The thinking is and it's a personal opinion so I'm speculating a bit here concerning why they would want to enter the Mediterranean and why they were desperate to do so it could be because of an outbreak of war in the Middle East. That would make a lot of sense maybe involving Iran maybe involving Egypt or one of the other Arab countries (Syria?) I would not be surprised if the Russians attempting to assist an ally.
Detail associated with this prophecy. Russia as I mentioned which will shatter turkey Russia will occupy the land near The Straits currently known as Istanbul and then give Western Istanbul to Greece through an agreement with Western Europe Nations. I'm not sure when that will happen because there's additional prophecy about an expansion of this war with the Western and European nations.
Turkey will become divided like Yugoslavia did. For those that may not be that familiar with turkey I mentioned that turkey occupies what's currently or previously should say Greek lands and they also occupy some land from the Armenians they've also displaced the Kurds who are part of western turkey and may actually be the original inhabitants of what was previously known as Anatolia there is currently turkey.
3- Expansion of the war. The prophecy states that several European nations will enter the war and he names a few: UK , France, Italy, and about a half a dozen others and here's something to listen to. He says that every nation that enters this war is lost. He also mentions that Greece however will not enter the war and they will just keep an army at their border. It makes sense that after hostilities have terminated what is left of these nations that will come to an agreement and give the Straits or a portion of the Straits. I believe the prophecy States the western side of The Straits back to Greece which also contains a jewel of Christendom the Hagia Sophia Cathedral.
There's a mention also and because these Prophecies of course are not fulfilled it's hard to determine the sequence of events but he mentions that there will be a six-month famine in Greece as well and it may come after the initial attack from turkey.
War is Coming NATO Wants to Send 250,000 Troops into Ukraine
Monday, July 14, 2025 By: Martin Armstrong
The European economy, especially Germany, is shrinking, and there is ZERO chance that it will recover before 2028. RELIABLE sources are saying that the discussions now behind the curtain are calling for NATO to declare a proxy war on Russia, and they are intending to send in 250,000 troops to Ukraine.
Trump has been brainwashed by the NEOCONS and has even endorsed Lindsey Graham. Trump, who hated war, is taking us into World War III. I have tried so hard to defeat my own computer, and I have always failed. I have tried my best, but Socrates will be correct again. So get prepared.
This is my salvo to the Trump team. I sent this text this morning. The Neocon NGO Cinema for Peace (always use the opposite of their goal) is pushing for war and is confirming in writing that 250,000 troops will be sent from NATO into Ukraine. I have been hearing this from sources for weeks, but for this NGO to put it in writing means it is advancing. With Trump now taking this one-sided attack on Russia, Putin and China will join forces and take down this arrogant Western neocon regime. The ONLY hope would be now to nuke Kiev, and maybe that would wake Europe up to drag their heads of state out to the streets where they belong. Sending in NATO troops is World War III, and then tactical nuclear weapons are justified.
Our models have been turning up, as you can see. The upturn began with the Israel-Iran war, which is by no means over yet. We still see tensions rising from next week onward.
My most profound concern is that we are entering a panic cycle over international War in 2026. The Neocons have brainwashed Trump. I have tried my best to defeat my own computer, but I have failed. There is no stopping this. Despite Trump's demands for lower rates, that means absolutely nothing in the long term. The 30-year bonds MUST close above 12840 for year-end to survive. Currently, they are in the 113 level. War will mean lower bond prices.
The US Share market has not yet made a major high in dollars. In all other currencies, we can see how foreign investors have outperformed domestic investors in the US share markets. We are preparing a review of markets from a global perspective.
The Dollar False Move? (PRO)
Wednesday, June 25, 2025 By: Martin Armstrong
A number of people are asking if this decline in the dollar into July is a FALSE MOVE before the real trend? Here, too, we can see that August does not look so friendly. That is a Directional Change with high volatility. However, that aligns with our war models as well. July still appears to be the target for the dollar low. It is 2026 that appears to be the real kick-off to war. Look at the Stochastic. The RED has fallen below the YELLOW, so it is coming out of crash mode, which requires the RED to be above both the BLUE and YELLOW. This is currently showing a Panic Cycle in April 2026.
When we turn to the Weekly Level, the ideal target for the low intraday or on a closing basis will be the week of July 28th. However, we could see the low perhaps the week of the 14th intraday, and the week of the 28th is a retest. We have a Panic Cycle the week of August 4th, so it appears that the recovery in the dollar will take shape then.
The claimed fundamentals for the dollar decline, which Bloomberg loves to tout, are that the "Dollar Index has fallen nearly 8.5 percent, its steepest drop since the 1980s," and they attribute this, of course, to their archenemy - Donald Trump. They point to his "aggressive trade policies, escalating tariff conflicts, and sharp reversals in longstanding diplomatic and economic norms," which they insist have "unnerved international investors."
Then, without any comprehension of the world economy, Bloomberg, the Financial Fake News, claims that "the dollar’s recent slide has been its emerging role as a funding currency for global carry trades." They are the ones pushing the de-dollarization and promoting the expansion of BRICS, so we better overthrow Donald Trump.
Regardless of who is president, US consumer spending is about 25% of global consumer spending, and that means others have to sell their products to the USA. Blommberg and others insisted that Trump's tariffs would cause huge inflation, which has not materialized. Their forecasts are nothing more than emotional political propaganda.
Bloomberg and the other Fake News outlets that hate Trump and want more EQUALITY as Stalin imposed in Russia, overlook two things: (1) the sovereign debt crisis, and (2) the war.
Key Estimates (Top 30 Economies by GDP):
United States: 1.9%
China: 1.2%
Japan: 2.0% (despite high debt, low rates keep payments manageable)
Germany: 0.8%
India: 3.3%
United Kingdom: 3.5%
France: 1.7%
Italy: 3.9%
Brazil: 8.5% (highest among major economies)
Canada: 1.4%
The sovereign debt crisis is brewing but outside the USA FIRST!!!! Canada's interest expenditures are on track to exceed healthcare expenditures. While people keep talking about the US debt as the reason for the de-dollarization, look at the BRICS, they are paying more in interest as a percent of GDP than the US, and Brazil is the worst. Britain is in a bad shape, and it is comparable to Italy. Germany has just abandoned austerity and is now going to inflate to prepare for war. The Sovereign Debt Crisis is UNSUSTAINABLE, but it will break FIRST outside the USA. The United States will be the last standing.
As the pressure on funding war is that NATO wants 5% of GDP for its Neocon War objectives. This is greater than the interest expenditures. NATO will not only take us into World War III, but they are also accelerating the Sovereign Debt Crisis. This is NOT positive for the de-dollarization BS. Europe is highly socialistic, and this shift from social spending to war will lead to more civil unrest.
Just compare the economic growth rate of the United States to the exceptionally socialistic policies of Europe. There is no comparison. But the dollar is trash against everything else? When the bullets start to fly, capital controls will be imposed in the EU, and capital will be trapped.
Crude Oil Confirms War Cycle
Wednesday, June 25, 2025 By: Martin Armstrong
When we look at Crude Oil, we have undergone a classic 3-year correction into 2025. This year is a Directional Change, but 2026 is a Panic Cycle. This aligns with our International War Cycle, which also features a Panic Cycle in 2026. Examine the volatility projections; they begin to rise in 2026 and continue into 2027. While we read press stories put out by the Neocons, how Iran wants to overthrow the Supreme Leader and the people are pro-American and Israel, the info I get from on the ground does not support that. Even if the Supreme Leader is replaced, that does not mean that this form of government falls.
No doubt, our 72-year Revolution Cycle in Iran does show that there may be a change in government in 2025. But this remains to be seen. I fear that the Neocons running Israel will pull the same BS they always do and try to assassinate the Supreme Leader, and that will NOT unfold as a positive event, but will have the exact opposite and galvanize the Islamic world. We will see sleeper cells, terrorists, and uprisings, especially in Europe.
We will be examining these issues and more in a special report. This is just one facet of the Cycle of War. Europe is determined to wage WWIII with Russia, and they will lose this time.
Gold & War - Anticipation In Advance - As Always
Monday, June 23, 2025 By: Martin Armstrong
I find it interesting how, despite the news, the computer was showing a lull in the geopolitical events with the war between Israel and Iran. Gold was turning down, and the Cyclical Stochastic was also heading down as the missiles were flying in both directions. The computer and the markets do not listen to the Neocon Propaganda News, they just call the shots as they are unfolding cyclically and economically.
There remains the risk of a gold retest of support into July. Then we have the Panic Cycle in August, followed by high volatility thereafter. The question is, which crazy nut-job will be the one? Zelensky or Netanyahu? The objective in Iran was never really the nuclear program. It was a regime change. Will the Neocons, now in control of Israel, still plot to assassinate the Supreme Leader, transforming him into a martyr? Or are we going to see Zelensky, desperate and on the edge, try to attack a nuclear facility in Russia or again try to assassinate Putin by November?
We have a Panic Cycle in 2026. We have tensions throughout Asia, the crazy leaders in Ukraine and Israel, and turmoil between Pakistan, India, Thailand, and Cambodia. Then there is Europe, desperate for war, and the Baltic states foaming at the mouth for a taste of Russian blood. I'm not sure if we have enough coins to flip in the air to decide this one.
We had the Panic Cycle for June on the AE War Index with a Directional Change. That worked out correctly. We have another Panic Cycle on the Quarterly level for the 3rd Quarter in 2026 as well. So hold on to you seat. It does not appear that this is anywhere close to concluded.
Trump Attacks Iran & What the Computer Shows from Here
Sunday, June 22, 2025 By: Martin Armstrong
Several sources were suggesting that the attack would be today. Obviously, I cannot report on such events ahead of them, which would surely run afoul of National Security issues. Trump eventually posted at 8PM on Truth Social.
Trump further announced that he would address the nation at 10PM. He took the bait of the Neocons, and we will see the repercussions going into the Week of June 30th. While Trump may believe that this will end the war, the computer does not agree.
The worst possible outcome is if Israel now assassinates the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He has named three senior clerics as candidates to succeed him in case he is assassinated amid an intensifying conflict with Israel. From Russia to Shia states, this coming week was the target. The Week of June 30th is critical. Trump may now try to paint the image that this will end the war. He will speak tonight at 10PM. I am not certain that the Neocons would be satisfied by this outcome. They do not want to leave the Supreme Leader in power any more than they did in Iraq. They will continue this quest.
This Middle East War Will Be a Contagion - Not Isolated
Friday, June 20, 2025 By: Martin Armstrong
Aside from all the arrays on the individual markets that are screaming that this is not simply a short-lived war, Israel was established in 1948. The Rule of 9 applies, and that brings us to nine cycles of 8.6 years, or 77.4 years. The U.S. (President Harry Truman) recognized Israel de facto on May 14, 1948 (1948.367). This will be 2025.767, bringing us to October 7th, 2025.
As you can see, August remains an important target, but October is a Panic Cycle with high volatility into November. Israel does NOT have the missiles to defend its Iron Dome against Iran, which has thousands of missiles stockpiled. They lucked out with Hezbollah, and they were able to pull off a regime change, and Turkey assisted. Sources indicate that they warned Netanyahu that they could run out of defense missiles if the conflict escalated into a protracted war. Netanyahu is a NEOCON and his actions are as irrational as the rest of them, from Bill Kristol to John Bolton. I am not sure that Trump is getting the correct intel to demand that Tehan unconditionally surrender. He seems to be given fake news, and this is coming from the Deep State.
Iran doesn’t have to build a nuke; Russia and China can move them in, as we saw in the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, which was 63 years ago – (2 x 31.4). Iran is a strategic partner, providing drones even to Russia in Ukraine. They are also a member of BRICS.
Remember the 1973 oil embargo began on October 17, 1973, when the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) announced an embargo on oil shipments to nations perceived as supporting Israel during the Yom Kippur War, which started on October 6, 1973 (1973.764). Even here, 51.6 years brought us to (2025.364), which was May 13th, 2025. Some believe that the planning for this attack on June 13th, 2025, began at that time.
Over the decades, this ideological rivalry between Iran and Israel hardened. Iran positioned itself as the leader of the so-called “Resistance Axis,” arming and supporting proxy militias like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and, more recently, militant groups in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. They became extensions of Iran’s strategy to pressure and encircle Israel without direct confrontation. That pressure has only intensified over time, contributing to the rising tensions in the Middle East.
The last regime change orchestrated by the CIA and MI6 was in 1953 with the overthrow of the government in Operation Boot, which installed the Shah of Iran. That lasted for 26 years, and he was deposed by the current Islamic government, which called the US the Great Satin and instigated the US Embassy Hostage Crisis. Even this 72-year Revolutionary Cycle was also due here in 2025, and this time it was Israel instigating a regime change in Iran.
When we look at Iran, we see the same key months ahead - July and October. This suggests that the war may indeed be more widespread as it unfolds, or have a significant economic impact. The danger, as I have said, is that this is perceived as a religious war. Then we may see civil unrest rise in Jordan, Egypt, and even Saudi Arabia against their respective governments.
Here, we have a very neutral government, and we observe a Panic Cycle from August, with three Directional Changes in a row, continuing into November. This implies there will be at least an economic contagion, and this does not indicate that this war will be over quickly. This is a collaborative index designed to track the performance of the top 15 UAE-listed companies selected from both the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) and the Dubai Financial Market (DFM).
When we look around at the Middle East, we see the same key periods for turning points. This, to me, implies that we are going to be dealing with a contagion rather than domestic events in each nation. It is lining up that one for all and all for one.
Israeli Attacking Iran's Oil Fields is Highly Dangerous
Sunday, June 15, 2025 By: Martin Armstrong
We warned last year that Crude Oil was having a rally, not a decline. Our Bifurcation models also confirmed that 2024 would be a watershed with a gap into 2032. We further warned that while volatility would rise in 2025, we saw 2026 as a Panic Cycle Year. This was lining up with our war models, not with climate change.
Israel has significantly weakened Iran by taking out its proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. This may appear that Iran stands alone, and now targeting its energy fields carries a double-edged risk. Despite U.S. sanctions, Iran continues to export oil, about 80% of which is taken by China. Purchases are often disguised as oil from Oman, UAE, or Malaysia ("rebranding") or settled in currencies like renminbi to avoid sanctions. Syria was buying Iranian oil under special arrangements, often in exchange for political/military support. Venezuela has been engaging in oil swaps (e.g., Iranian heavy crude for Venezuelan light crude) due to mutual pressure from sanctions. Additional buyers have included Malaysia, Indonesia, the UAE, and India, which occasionally import via "shadow fleet" tankers, although volumes fluctuate. India officially halted imports in 2019 but may receive limited shipments indirectly. By targeting Iran's energy production, this is the same strategy employed against Russia, with the belief that such a policy will undermine their income and ultimately bring down the adversary through economic means. Yet, even though there are sanctions, stopping Iranian production will send oil prices higher and have adverse impacts on everyone, especially China.
Since Israel has escalated its ongoing conflict with Iran by attacking the world's largest gas field and other energy infrastructure, as part of a two-day assault that had otherwise largely targeted sites and personnel tied to the Islamic Republic's armed forces and nuclear program. Iran's oil production is highly significant for the West, both economically and geopolitically, though its direct impact fluctuates significantly due to sanctions.
We can see that our model has been projecting a rally into July with rising volatility. Keep in mind that Iran possesses the world's 4th largest proven oil reserves and has historically been a top 5 global exporter. Even under sanctions, it remains a substantial producer (typically 3-4 million barrels per day - mb/d), capable of significantly influencing global supply. Attacking the Iranian gas fields will cause a dramatic inflationary impact on the world, fulfilling what our model has been projecting - STAGFLATION! The risk of escalating this war beyond the Middle East grows when Israel threatens the oil production, of which 80% goes to China. This will invite China to get involved and Iran is already a proxy of China.
The resistance for a sharp breakout stands at the $86-88, followed by $115.
Will June 13th, 2025, be A Day Remembered in Infamy?
Saturday, June 14, 2025 By: Martin Armstrong
Will June 13th, 2025, be A Day Remembered in Infamy?
The U.S. did not provide any military assistance or have any involvement in the Israeli strike, and as I said, Israel stabbed Trump in the back on this one, the same as the EU has been doing to prevent any peace deal with Putin over Ukraine.
Historians may look back on June 13th, 2025, as the day that will live in infamy, using the words of FDR over Pearl Harbor, which he most likely instigated. Did Israel cross a red line that will now be impossible to step back from? This attack, Operation Raising Lion, was on schedule, even according to our War Index, which had targeted June as a Panic Cycle. This attack on Iran has indeed taken the international community by surprise and sent global markets reeling. Israel’s wide-scale military operation against Iran in the early hours of the morning, striking targets across at least 12 provinces, including the capital, Tehran. Israel targeted suspected nuclear facilities, air defense systems, and the homes and offices of senior military personnel. Iranian state media confirmed the deaths of several top commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Iranian officials described this attack as a direct act of war. The Israeli Defense Minister, Israel Katz, warned that "Tehran will burn" if Iran fires more missiles at Israel. In return, in a televised address Friday night, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed to bring Israel "to ruin". Iran has to retaliate, and Israel knows that will be the case.
What is taking place is that the EU has been pretty anti-Israel over the Hamas issue, so the international calls for restraint are increasing, as fears grow that the Middle East could be on the threshold of a broader conflict. Israel was only able to damage about 20% of Iran’s nuclear facilities with waves of strikes in Iran. Yet, the Israeli air force continued striking dozens of surface-to-surface missile launchers in Iran, to reduce the Iranian regime's aerial defense capabilities in the area of Tehran.
All the weapons that we have seen being used against Israel are sourced from China and North Korea. Iran is merely the proxy of China. Therein lies the problem of this escalating when Iran is not standing alone. Iran's state media said," Iran announced it will not participate in nuclear negotiations with the United States.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had long said that he would prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, by force if necessary. I also think that he may have believed that this Operation Raising Lion would compel Tehran to accept a new nuclear agreement more favorable to Israeli interests, including the removal of its enriched uranium stockpiles. These goals may ultimately serve only to perpetuate a broader regional war. I do not see how this will create perpetual peace.
While the prospect of all-out war between Iran and Israel has long been a concern, this attack in its widespread scope feels dangerously different. The scale has raised the specter of a regional conflict spilling far beyond its traditional bounds.
There was a Saudi-Iranian cold war that played out across the region since the 2011 Arab Spring. That dispute was mitigated only through Chinese mediation in March 2023. However, since October 2023, a war of attrition between Israel and Iran has unfolded, and now a conflict threatens to redefine the Middle East, some fear in Biblical terms.
If Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, comes to view the survival of the Islamic Republic as being fundamentally threatened, then Tehran’s response would expand far beyond Israeli territory, calling all Islamic nations to arms.
This confrontation was inevitable. Israeli leaders had been issuing repeated warnings that a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities was imminent. Intelligence assessments in Tel Aviv claimed Iran was only weeks away from acquiring the necessary components to build a nuclear weapon. It does not matter that others, including some in the international community, disputed this claim, as I have said many times, the one thing my father taught me was that you should never judge others by what you think. They will act based on their perception, regardless of whether you agree or disagree. This assessment by Israel shaped its decision to act militarily.
At the same time, indirect negotiations between Iran and the US had been underway, focused on limiting Iran’s uranium enrichment and reducing tensions through a revised nuclear agreement. President Donald Trump publicly supported these diplomatic efforts, describing them as preferable to what he called a potentially bloody war. However, the talks faltered when Iran refused to halt enrichment on its own soil.
While some try to claim that the US administration, while officially opposing military escalation, reportedly gave tacit approval for a limited Israeli strike. Only a Neocon would publicly pretend that such a strike would shift the balance in negotiations and send a message that Iran was not negotiating from a position of strength. Nobody with just 5% of their brain functioning would believe that was even possible unless you are drunk on your own power.
Israel insists that it notified the Trump Administration in advance, much like Zelensky tried to claim he too informed the Trump Administration before he attacked Russian bombers. The US did not participate operationally; both the aircraft and the bunker-busting bombs used were supplied by the US, the latter during Trump’s first term.
While Iran admits that there was significant damage to centrifuge halls and enrichment pipelines at its Natanz facility, it insists that their nuclear program remains intact. Iran’s nuclear infrastructure includes multiple deeply buried sites, some more than 1650 feet (500 meters) underground, and is spread across distances exceeding 1,000km (620 miles). The Iranian program stretches back to the 1980s and is dispersed across multiple, deeply buried sites. One known as Fordow is almost 330 ft below ground (100 meters), beyond the reach of any of Israel’s publicly known weapons, including bunker busters they got from the first Trump Administration, I believe, thanks to the Neocon John Bolton. Israel says it has damaged the underground enrichment hall at Natanz, but it could not reach the one at Fordow. As a result, the total destruction of the program by air strikes alone in this initial phase appears unlikely.
Israel feared that Trump might have been close to an agreement that they objected to. Iran’s missile stockpile had been depleted, and its main regional ally, Hizbullah, has been brought to its knees. However, Israel has destroyed in this June 2025 attack only about 20% of the Iranian nuclear program so far. This will require a much broader campaign. Israel targeted the country’s top three military officials and a senior adviser to the supreme leader for elimination.
Now, with blood spilled on the soil of Iran targeting both individuals and key targets, Khamenei faces enormous internal and external pressure to respond. The elimination of multiple high-ranking military officials in a single night has ONLY further intensified the demand for a multifaceted response. To show some backbone, Iran’s reply so far has taken the form of another wave of drone attacks, most of which were intercepted by Israeli and Jordanian defenses.
Jordan's location is crucial here. The drones flew over its airspace en route to Israel. Jordan cited self-defense and protecting citizens. They mentioned preventing airspace violations and potential fallout from debris. That makes sense in light of their stated reasons. There is a Jordan-Israel peace treaty, but it's complex. Jordan's action wasn't necessarily pro-Israel but more about sovereignty.
The Royal Jordanian Air Force actively intercepted and shot down dozens of these Iranian drones flying over its territory. Jordan also reportedly intercepted some projectiles near its border with Syria. Jordan has made it clear that they have stated that they would not allow their airspace to be violated by any party.
Therefore, while Jordan's primary stated motivation was self-defense, its interception of Iranian drones over its territory was a significant factor in blunting the Iranian attack and constituted a form of operational aid to Israel during that specific event.
Iran no longer plans to engage in nuclear talks with the U.S. that were scheduled to take place in Oman on June 15th, 2025. Iranian leaders announced on Friday, June 13th, 2025, that it was their decision after Israel launched its attack on Tehran’s nuclear facilities and military leaders. The Iranian government has stated that it does not view the Israeli operation as an isolated incident, but rather as the beginning of a more protracted conflict. Referring to it as a “war of attrition” – a term also used to describe Iran’s drawn-out war with Iraq in the 1980s – officials have indicated the confrontation is likely to unfold over weeks or even months. We see the week of June 30th as a point in time ahead.
While retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Israeli targets are likely to continue, some are now suggesting that with the backing of Russia and China, Iran might also now target US military bases in the Gulf, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and even Jordan. Such an escalation would likely draw US forces directly into the conflict. Such a possibility would be most reflected in the price of oil and gold, so pay attention to Socrates’ timing arrays on those markets. Such an event may disrupt global oil supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. That, in turn, could trigger a steep rise in energy prices and send global markets spiraling higher. This would impact inflation and do significant harm to the European economy.
While Israel reduced Iran’s air defense, and any proportionate military response against Israel proves difficult, Iran, nonetheless, will escalate its cyberattacks and increase its proxy warfare. Iran may completely withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which it has long used as a framework to assert that its nuclear program is peaceful. Exiting the treaty would signal a significant policy shift. That means revoking Khamenei's ban on the development and use of nuclear weapons. This in itself would be a step toward nuclear war in the Middle East openly for the first time.
Israel’s strikes appear to have succeeded only in provoking Tehran to accelerate its nuclear program. The withdrawal from the NPT would advance its nuclear program without the constraints of international agreements, and Israel’s campaign intended to stop a bomb, instead ending up accelerating its creation.
The very assumption that Iran stands alone is a dangerous one. Besides Russia and China supporting Iran, North Korea also supports Iran, primarily through military and technical cooperation, driven by shared geopolitical interests and opposition to Western influence.
North Korea assists in Military Technology transfers that include Ballistic Missiles. This is the most significant area where North Korea has supplied Iran with missile technology, components, and expertise for decades. Iran's Shahab and Sejjil missile programs have clear links to North Korean designs (like the Nodong/Scud-C and BM-25 Musudan). There's evidence of ongoing collaboration, including recent reports of North Korean missile components found in Russian weapons used in Ukraine that are sourced from Iran.
Israel has most likely provoked Iran, and North Korea can provide a nuclear weapon when pushed. Western intelligence agencies have long suspected some level of collaboration or technology exchange regarding nuclear weapons development between the two countries, particularly in the past. Both face sanctions over their nuclear ambitions. Both have faced heavy international sanctions from the US, the UN, and the EU.
Iran and North Korea both view the United States and its allies (especially Israel in Iran's case, and South Korea/Japan in North Korea's case) as primary adversaries. They often coordinate diplomatically to resist Western pressure in international forums, such as the UN.
While hampered by sanctions, there have been reports of trade, including North Korean labor exports to Iran and potential arms-for-oil deals. However, the scale is likely limited due to the enforcement pressures of sanctions.
North Korea gains hard currency and potentially oil/other resources from Iran. Iran gains critical missile technology and components it struggles to develop entirely indigenously or acquire elsewhere. Both leverage their networks to help each other evade sanctions. This cooperation strengthens their positions against common adversaries, although this relationship is primarily transactional and does not constitute a mutual defense pact like NATO.
Much of the cooperation, especially military, is clandestine due to sanctions. This attack by Israel has only escalated the geopolitical circumstances and sanctions pressure, but the core military-technical cooperation has proven remarkably resilient.
North Korea actively supports Iran, and, in this instance, they will most likely step up this cooperation on ballistic missile technology and components. This cooperation is a cornerstone of their relationship, driven by shared opposition to the West and the mutual benefits of circumventing sanctions.
War - It's More than you Think! (PRO)
Saturday, June 14, 2025 By: Martin Armstrong
While the world is now focused on the Middle East and potential Armageddon, the computer is warning this ain't all folks. Israel attacked Iran on June 13th, 2025, saying it acted now because Iran had “accelerated” towards a bomb. Others fear that Trump may have been close to an agreement that they objected to. Iran’s missile stockpile had been depleted, and its main regional ally, Hizbullah, has been brought to its knees. However, Israel has destroyed in this June 2025 attack only about 20% of the Iranian nuclear program so far. This will require a much broader campaign. Israel targeted the country’s top three military officials and a senior adviser to the supreme leader for elimination.
Israel also struck anti-aircraft batteries and ballistic-missile launchers with explosive drones that were launched from within Iran by operatives of the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, much like the strategy used by Ukraine against Russia’s bombers. The IDF has even released videos calling into question the coordination of Ukraine’s Operation Spider’s Web, the drone raid on Russian bombers, which some question if that was strategic to prevent Russia from engaging bombers to protect Iran.
I warned on the public blog on June 12th, within minutes of the attack: "Suffice it to say, I believe that Israel broke with Trump not unlike the EU. I think Israel feared that Trump and Iran appeared to be close to a preliminary agreement that included provisions about uranium enrichment that Israel refused to accept. This is all I know from my sources right now."
I have been warning that the Neocons moved to Europe when they failed to stop Trump from taking office. I have also warned that all the propaganda about Putin was false and that Zelensky tried to assassinate Putin on May 20th, knowing the truth that Putin is a moderate. Remove him, and you will get a Russian Neocon. Those who believe the Neocon propaganda have sent in their typical hate mail, calling me a Russian propagandist. I feel sorry for these people, as they lack the independence to question the narrative that the mainstream media is instructed to push.
Now for the Real Daring Plot
The dollar has been declining against the Chinese yuan and the Russian ruble in recent times. This is NOT because of the tariffs. This is some quiet liquidation of US assets, and it has nothing to do with all the BS against Trump. I have warned that you do not hold the debt of an adversary in war, for they will never pay. So while the world is all upset over Israel's attack on Iran, there is a far darker plot at play here behind the curtain.
Rumours are swirling about Xi Jinping losing power or control over the military. When we examine the situation in Zhongnanhai closely, we see that Xi Jinping is also astute and, like Putin, has been attempting to avoid war. This shift in power at the very highest level in Zhongnanhai is the same concern I have about replacing Putin. I cannot believe that Zelensky is that stupid, and he is following orders from NATO to assassinate Putin in hopes that then Russia will attack anything in NATO.
Iran is China's Proxy
All the weapons that we have seen being used against Israel are sourced from China. Iran is merely the proxy of China, and my concern is that since the 20th Party Congress, Xi Jinping has effectively become just a "figurehead" to keep the West distracted. Xi Jinping's appearances are reminiscent of the British royal family, lacking power. His instructions in state media, local inspections, and foreign visits continue to be widely reported to maintain the appearance. However, his loyalists have all been ousted, marginalised, or sidelined. This is what I have been warning about: when dealing with Asia, you cannot do this in public. Trump was wrong in his tariff negotiations, and his actions have led to a loss of face for Xi Jinping.
Strangely, articles criticizing personal worship and one-man rule are occasionally appearing in China. His political opponents, particularly those from the Youth League faction, have recently become active again. These are all signs of a shift in Chinese politics, indicating that the highest echelon of power within the Communist Party has undergone a substantial transformation. We have witnessed Xi's loyalists in the military are being purged in large numbers, suggesting China's Neocons are seizing power. Both the Director of Political Work of the Central Military Commission, Miao Hua, and the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, He Weidong, have been purged. The real power in the military is now held by Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia, who notably did not stand up or turn to salute Xi during the Two Sessions this year, marking a clear stance against Xi. This has given the impression that Xi Jinping has lost control of the military and is now merely a figurehead, so the world pays less attention to China. Xi's Supporters have all been investigated or marginalized.
Curiously, the "Xi Zhongxun Memorial Hall" has been renamed to "Guanzhong Revolutionary Memorial Hall," and that demonstrates that they have downgraded Xi's father's political status. This is a serious loss of face for his family status. In addition, there has been a drastic shift in propaganda where the normal slogans promoting Xi’s central leadership have disappeared from state media, replaced with advocating for "collective leadership" and opposing personal worship have begun to appear frequently.
Since June 3rd, 2025, Xi Jinping has not appeared in public for 14 days. At the end of May, a routine Politburo meeting was held, but state media have released no news. On June 2nd and 3rd, Xi Jinping was notably absent from the front pages of the Party's media outlets. Has the political climate in Zhongnanhai truly changed? Moreover, the sudden removal of Hong Kong Liaison Office Director Zheng Yanxiong from all public posts on May 31 has raised concerns since Xi Jinping appointed Zheng Yanxiong to suppress the 2019 Hong Kong anti-extradition protests. We can see that the computer was marking June as a MAJOR target, the strongest for the year. Then we have a Directional Change in July with rising volatility into a Panic Cycle by December.
Add to this, China's economy has been in recession since the turn of the ECM in May last year. There is concern about a local debt implosion, and the collapse of the banking system may be inevitable. This shift in power is being driven economically, and as always, any government will turn to external factors to distract from domestic crises. Inside China, many developments are unfolding, and they are closely connected to the region and the rest of the world, including Japan. Xi Jinping's power is clearly in decline, and the domestic economy, as we head into 2028, will dictate the outcome for many governments as this sovereign debt crisis unfolds. When we examine the share mark, we can see that 2025 marked the start of higher volatility, and 2026 represents a major turning point, as does the Directional Change.
Two markets that are also influenced by war are obviously gold and crude oil. Our target for gold in 2026 remains in the 3900-4150 zone. Note that June has been the target, as we would then move into July. We have a Panic Cycle in gold during August.
When we examine our War Index, indeed, June has been our target for the start, with both a Directional Change and a Panic Cycle. Note that we have August/September as a key target, followed by a Panic Cycle in January.
This incident extends far beyond the Middle East. Tensions are rising everywhere, even between Thailand and Cambodia. War, historically, has been a contagion in and of itself. This is what we are looking at, and my deep concern is that the American-European Neocons have not just poked the bear, but have also disturbed the dragon. Both Putin and Xi Jinping are NOT the war mongers. But Russia and China also have their Neocons. My concern is that both can be marginalized, and then the nameless powers behind the throne instigate their emotional responses. Iran will not be allowed to fall without a fight. They are backed by Russia and, perhaps more so right now, by China.
