WW3 Progression

Israeli Attacking Iran's Oil Fields is Highly Dangerous

Sunday, June 15, 2025 By: Martin Armstrong

We warned last year that Crude Oil was having a rally, not a decline. Our Bifurcation models also confirmed that 2024 would be a watershed with a gap into 2032. We further warned that while volatility would rise in 2025, we saw 2026 as a Panic Cycle Year. This was lining up with our war models, not with climate change.

Israel has significantly weakened Iran by taking out its proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. This may appear that Iran stands alone, and now targeting its energy fields carries a double-edged risk. Despite U.S. sanctions, Iran continues to export oil, about 80% of which is taken by China. Purchases are often disguised as oil from Oman, UAE, or Malaysia ("rebranding") or settled in currencies like renminbi to avoid sanctions. Syria was buying Iranian oil under special arrangements, often in exchange for political/military support. Venezuela has been engaging in oil swaps (e.g., Iranian heavy crude for Venezuelan light crude) due to mutual pressure from sanctions. Additional buyers have included Malaysia, Indonesia, the UAE, and India, which occasionally import via "shadow fleet" tankers, although volumes fluctuate. India officially halted imports in 2019 but may receive limited shipments indirectly. By targeting Iran's energy production, this is the same strategy employed against Russia, with the belief that such a policy will undermine their income and ultimately bring down the adversary through economic means. Yet, even though there are sanctions, stopping Iranian production will send oil prices higher and have adverse impacts on everyone, especially China.

Since Israel has escalated its ongoing conflict with Iran by attacking the world's largest gas field and other energy infrastructure, as part of a two-day assault that had otherwise largely targeted sites and personnel tied to the Islamic Republic's armed forces and nuclear program. Iran's oil production is highly significant for the West, both economically and geopolitically, though its direct impact fluctuates significantly due to sanctions.

We can see that our model has been projecting a rally into July with rising volatility. Keep in mind that Iran possesses the world's 4th largest proven oil reserves and has historically been a top 5 global exporter. Even under sanctions, it remains a substantial producer (typically 3-4 million barrels per day - mb/d), capable of significantly influencing global supply. Attacking the Iranian gas fields will cause a dramatic inflationary impact on the world, fulfilling what our model has been projecting - STAGFLATION! The risk of escalating this war beyond the Middle East grows when Israel threatens the oil production, of which 80% goes to China. This will invite China to get involved and Iran is already a proxy of China.

The resistance for a sharp breakout stands at the $86-88, followed by $115.

Will June 13th, 2025, be A Day Remembered in Infamy?

Saturday, June 14, 2025 By: Martin Armstrong

Will June 13th, 2025, be A Day Remembered in Infamy?

The U.S. did not provide any military assistance or have any involvement in the Israeli strike, and as I said, Israel stabbed Trump in the back on this one, the same as the EU has been doing to prevent any peace deal with Putin over Ukraine.

Historians may look back on June 13th, 2025, as the day that will live in infamy, using the words of FDR over Pearl Harbor, which he most likely instigated. Did Israel cross a red line that will now be impossible to step back from? This attack, Operation Raising Lion, was on schedule, even according to our War Index, which had targeted June as a Panic Cycle. This attack on Iran has indeed taken the international community by surprise and sent global markets reeling. Israel’s wide-scale military operation against Iran in the early hours of the morning, striking targets across at least 12 provinces, including the capital, Tehran. Israel targeted suspected nuclear facilities, air defense systems, and the homes and offices of senior military personnel. Iranian state media confirmed the deaths of several top commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Iranian officials described this attack as a direct act of war. The Israeli Defense Minister, Israel Katz, warned that "Tehran will burn" if Iran fires more missiles at Israel. In return, in a televised address Friday night, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed to bring Israel "to ruin". Iran has to retaliate, and Israel knows that will be the case.

What is taking place is that the EU has been pretty anti-Israel over the Hamas issue, so the international calls for restraint are increasing, as fears grow that the Middle East could be on the threshold of a broader conflict. Israel was only able to damage about 20% of Iran’s nuclear facilities with waves of strikes in Iran. Yet, the Israeli air force continued striking dozens of surface-to-surface missile launchers in Iran, to reduce the Iranian regime's aerial defense capabilities in the area of Tehran.

All the weapons that we have seen being used against Israel are sourced from China and North Korea. Iran is merely the proxy of China. Therein lies the problem of this escalating when Iran is not standing alone. Iran's state media said," Iran announced it will not participate in nuclear negotiations with the United States.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had long said that he would prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power, by force if necessary. I also think that he may have believed that this Operation Raising Lion would compel Tehran to accept a new nuclear agreement more favorable to Israeli interests, including the removal of its enriched uranium stockpiles. These goals may ultimately serve only to perpetuate a broader regional war. I do not see how this will create perpetual peace.

While the prospect of all-out war between Iran and Israel has long been a concern, this attack in its widespread scope feels dangerously different. The scale has raised the specter of a regional conflict spilling far beyond its traditional bounds.

There was a Saudi-Iranian cold war that played out across the region since the 2011 Arab Spring. That dispute was mitigated only through Chinese mediation in March 2023. However, since October 2023, a war of attrition between Israel and Iran has unfolded, and now a conflict threatens to redefine the Middle East, some fear in Biblical terms.

If Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, comes to view the survival of the Islamic Republic as being fundamentally threatened, then Tehran’s response would expand far beyond Israeli territory, calling all Islamic nations to arms.

This confrontation was inevitable. Israeli leaders had been issuing repeated warnings that a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities was imminent. Intelligence assessments in Tel Aviv claimed Iran was only weeks away from acquiring the necessary components to build a nuclear weapon. It does not matter that others, including some in the international community, disputed this claim, as I have said many times, the one thing my father taught me was that you should never judge others by what you think. They will act based on their perception, regardless of whether you agree or disagree. This assessment by Israel shaped its decision to act militarily.

At the same time, indirect negotiations between Iran and the US had been underway, focused on limiting Iran’s uranium enrichment and reducing tensions through a revised nuclear agreement. President Donald Trump publicly supported these diplomatic efforts, describing them as preferable to what he called a potentially bloody war. However, the talks faltered when Iran refused to halt enrichment on its own soil.

While some try to claim that the US administration, while officially opposing military escalation, reportedly gave tacit approval for a limited Israeli strike. Only a Neocon would publicly pretend that such a strike would shift the balance in negotiations and send a message that Iran was not negotiating from a position of strength. Nobody with just 5% of their brain functioning would believe that was even possible unless you are drunk on your own power.

Israel insists that it notified the Trump Administration in advance, much like Zelensky tried to claim he too informed the Trump Administration before he attacked Russian bombers. The US did not participate operationally; both the aircraft and the bunker-busting bombs used were supplied by the US, the latter during Trump’s first term.

While Iran admits that there was significant damage to centrifuge halls and enrichment pipelines at its Natanz facility, it insists that their nuclear program remains intact. Iran’s nuclear infrastructure includes multiple deeply buried sites, some more than 1650 feet (500 meters) underground, and is spread across distances exceeding 1,000km (620 miles). The Iranian program stretches back to the 1980s and is dispersed across multiple, deeply buried sites. One known as Fordow is almost 330 ft below ground (100 meters), beyond the reach of any of Israel’s publicly known weapons, including bunker busters they got from the first Trump Administration, I believe, thanks to the Neocon John Bolton. Israel says it has damaged the underground enrichment hall at Natanz, but it could not reach the one at Fordow. As a result, the total destruction of the program by air strikes alone in this initial phase appears unlikely.

Israel feared that Trump might have been close to an agreement that they objected to. Iran’s missile stockpile had been depleted, and its main regional ally, Hizbullah, has been brought to its knees. However, Israel has destroyed in this June 2025 attack only about 20% of the Iranian nuclear program so far. This will require a much broader campaign. Israel targeted the country’s top three military officials and a senior adviser to the supreme leader for elimination.

Now, with blood spilled on the soil of Iran targeting both individuals and key targets, Khamenei faces enormous internal and external pressure to respond. The elimination of multiple high-ranking military officials in a single night has ONLY further intensified the demand for a multifaceted response. To show some backbone, Iran’s reply so far has taken the form of another wave of drone attacks, most of which were intercepted by Israeli and Jordanian defenses.

Jordan's location is crucial here. The drones flew over its airspace en route to Israel. Jordan cited self-defense and protecting citizens. They mentioned preventing airspace violations and potential fallout from debris. That makes sense in light of their stated reasons. There is a Jordan-Israel peace treaty, but it's complex. Jordan's action wasn't necessarily pro-Israel but more about sovereignty.

The Royal Jordanian Air Force actively intercepted and shot down dozens of these Iranian drones flying over its territory. Jordan also reportedly intercepted some projectiles near its border with Syria. Jordan has made it clear that they have stated that they would not allow their airspace to be violated by any party.

Therefore, while Jordan's primary stated motivation was self-defense, its interception of Iranian drones over its territory was a significant factor in blunting the Iranian attack and constituted a form of operational aid to Israel during that specific event.

Iran no longer plans to engage in nuclear talks with the U.S. that were scheduled to take place in Oman on June 15th, 2025. Iranian leaders announced on Friday, June 13th, 2025, that it was their decision after Israel launched its attack on Tehran’s nuclear facilities and military leaders. The Iranian government has stated that it does not view the Israeli operation as an isolated incident, but rather as the beginning of a more protracted conflict. Referring to it as a “war of attrition” – a term also used to describe Iran’s drawn-out war with Iraq in the 1980s – officials have indicated the confrontation is likely to unfold over weeks or even months. We see the week of June 30th as a point in time ahead.

While retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Israeli targets are likely to continue, some are now suggesting that with the backing of Russia and China, Iran might also now target US military bases in the Gulf, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and even Jordan. Such an escalation would likely draw US forces directly into the conflict. Such a possibility would be most reflected in the price of oil and gold, so pay attention to Socrates’ timing arrays on those markets. Such an event may disrupt global oil supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. That, in turn, could trigger a steep rise in energy prices and send global markets spiraling higher. This would impact inflation and do significant harm to the European economy.

While Israel reduced Iran’s air defense, and any proportionate military response against Israel proves difficult, Iran, nonetheless, will escalate its cyberattacks and increase its proxy warfare. Iran may completely withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which it has long used as a framework to assert that its nuclear program is peaceful. Exiting the treaty would signal a significant policy shift. That means revoking Khamenei's ban on the development and use of nuclear weapons. This in itself would be a step toward nuclear war in the Middle East openly for the first time.

Israel’s strikes appear to have succeeded only in provoking Tehran to accelerate its nuclear program. The withdrawal from the NPT would advance its nuclear program without the constraints of international agreements, and Israel’s campaign intended to stop a bomb, instead ending up accelerating its creation.

The very assumption that Iran stands alone is a dangerous one. Besides Russia and China supporting Iran, North Korea also supports Iran, primarily through military and technical cooperation, driven by shared geopolitical interests and opposition to Western influence.

North Korea assists in Military Technology transfers that include Ballistic Missiles. This is the most significant area where North Korea has supplied Iran with missile technology, components, and expertise for decades. Iran's Shahab and Sejjil missile programs have clear links to North Korean designs (like the Nodong/Scud-C and BM-25 Musudan). There's evidence of ongoing collaboration, including recent reports of North Korean missile components found in Russian weapons used in Ukraine that are sourced from Iran.

Israel has most likely provoked Iran, and North Korea can provide a nuclear weapon when pushed. Western intelligence agencies have long suspected some level of collaboration or technology exchange regarding nuclear weapons development between the two countries, particularly in the past. Both face sanctions over their nuclear ambitions. Both have faced heavy international sanctions from the US, the UN, and the EU.

Iran and North Korea both view the United States and its allies (especially Israel in Iran's case, and South Korea/Japan in North Korea's case) as primary adversaries. They often coordinate diplomatically to resist Western pressure in international forums, such as the UN.

While hampered by sanctions, there have been reports of trade, including North Korean labor exports to Iran and potential arms-for-oil deals. However, the scale is likely limited due to the enforcement pressures of sanctions.

North Korea gains hard currency and potentially oil/other resources from Iran. Iran gains critical missile technology and components it struggles to develop entirely indigenously or acquire elsewhere. Both leverage their networks to help each other evade sanctions. This cooperation strengthens their positions against common adversaries, although this relationship is primarily transactional and does not constitute a mutual defense pact like NATO.

Much of the cooperation, especially military, is clandestine due to sanctions. This attack by Israel has only escalated the geopolitical circumstances and sanctions pressure, but the core military-technical cooperation has proven remarkably resilient.

North Korea actively supports Iran, and, in this instance, they will most likely step up this cooperation on ballistic missile technology and components. This cooperation is a cornerstone of their relationship, driven by shared opposition to the West and the mutual benefits of circumventing sanctions.

War - It's More than you Think! (PRO)

Saturday, June 14, 2025 By: Martin Armstrong

While the world is now focused on the Middle East and potential Armageddon, the computer is warning this ain't all folks. Israel attacked Iran on June 13th, 2025, saying it acted now because Iran had “accelerated” towards a bomb. Others fear that Trump may have been close to an agreement that they objected to. Iran’s missile stockpile had been depleted, and its main regional ally, Hizbullah, has been brought to its knees. However, Israel has destroyed in this June 2025 attack only about 20% of the Iranian nuclear program so far. This will require a much broader campaign. Israel targeted the country’s top three military officials and a senior adviser to the supreme leader for elimination.

Israel also struck anti-aircraft batteries and ballistic-missile launchers with explosive drones that were launched from within Iran by operatives of the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, much like the strategy used by Ukraine against Russia’s bombers. The IDF has even released videos calling into question the coordination of Ukraine’s Operation Spider’s Web, the drone raid on Russian bombers, which some question if that was strategic to prevent Russia from engaging bombers to protect Iran.

I warned on the public blog on June 12th, within minutes of the attack: "Suffice it to say, I believe that Israel broke with Trump not unlike the EU. I think Israel feared that Trump and Iran appeared to be close to a preliminary agreement that included provisions about uranium enrichment that Israel refused to accept. This is all I know from my sources right now."

I have been warning that the Neocons moved to Europe when they failed to stop Trump from taking office. I have also warned that all the propaganda about Putin was false and that Zelensky tried to assassinate Putin on May 20th, knowing the truth that Putin is a moderate. Remove him, and you will get a Russian Neocon. Those who believe the Neocon propaganda have sent in their typical hate mail, calling me a Russian propagandist. I feel sorry for these people, as they lack the independence to question the narrative that the mainstream media is instructed to push.

Now for the Real Daring Plot

The dollar has been declining against the Chinese yuan and the Russian ruble in recent times. This is NOT because of the tariffs. This is some quiet liquidation of US assets, and it has nothing to do with all the BS against Trump. I have warned that you do not hold the debt of an adversary in war, for they will never pay. So while the world is all upset over Israel's attack on Iran, there is a far darker plot at play here behind the curtain.

Rumours are swirling about Xi Jinping losing power or control over the military. When we examine the situation in Zhongnanhai closely, we see that Xi Jinping is also astute and, like Putin, has been attempting to avoid war. This shift in power at the very highest level in Zhongnanhai is the same concern I have about replacing Putin. I cannot believe that Zelensky is that stupid, and he is following orders from NATO to assassinate Putin in hopes that then Russia will attack anything in NATO.

Iran is China's Proxy

All the weapons that we have seen being used against Israel are sourced from China. Iran is merely the proxy of China, and my concern is that since the 20th Party Congress, Xi Jinping has effectively become just a "figurehead" to keep the West distracted. Xi Jinping's appearances are reminiscent of the British royal family, lacking power. His instructions in state media, local inspections, and foreign visits continue to be widely reported to maintain the appearance. However, his loyalists have all been ousted, marginalised, or sidelined. This is what I have been warning about: when dealing with Asia, you cannot do this in public. Trump was wrong in his tariff negotiations, and his actions have led to a loss of face for Xi Jinping.

Strangely, articles criticizing personal worship and one-man rule are occasionally appearing in China. His political opponents, particularly those from the Youth League faction, have recently become active again. These are all signs of a shift in Chinese politics, indicating that the highest echelon of power within the Communist Party has undergone a substantial transformation. We have witnessed Xi's loyalists in the military are being purged in large numbers, suggesting China's Neocons are seizing power. Both the Director of Political Work of the Central Military Commission, Miao Hua, and the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, He Weidong, have been purged. The real power in the military is now held by Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia, who notably did not stand up or turn to salute Xi during the Two Sessions this year, marking a clear stance against Xi. This has given the impression that Xi Jinping has lost control of the military and is now merely a figurehead, so the world pays less attention to China. Xi's Supporters have all been investigated or marginalized.

Curiously, the "Xi Zhongxun Memorial Hall" has been renamed to "Guanzhong Revolutionary Memorial Hall," and that demonstrates that they have downgraded Xi's father's political status. This is a serious loss of face for his family status. In addition, there has been a drastic shift in propaganda where the normal slogans promoting Xi’s central leadership have disappeared from state media, replaced with advocating for "collective leadership" and opposing personal worship have begun to appear frequently.

Since June 3rd, 2025, Xi Jinping has not appeared in public for 14 days. At the end of May, a routine Politburo meeting was held, but state media have released no news. On June 2nd and 3rd, Xi Jinping was notably absent from the front pages of the Party's media outlets. Has the political climate in Zhongnanhai truly changed? Moreover, the sudden removal of Hong Kong Liaison Office Director Zheng Yanxiong from all public posts on May 31 has raised concerns since Xi Jinping appointed Zheng Yanxiong to suppress the 2019 Hong Kong anti-extradition protests. We can see that the computer was marking June as a MAJOR target, the strongest for the year. Then we have a Directional Change in July with rising volatility into a Panic Cycle by December.

Add to this, China's economy has been in recession since the turn of the ECM in May last year. There is concern about a local debt implosion, and the collapse of the banking system may be inevitable. This shift in power is being driven economically, and as always, any government will turn to external factors to distract from domestic crises. Inside China, many developments are unfolding, and they are closely connected to the region and the rest of the world, including Japan. Xi Jinping's power is clearly in decline, and the domestic economy, as we head into 2028, will dictate the outcome for many governments as this sovereign debt crisis unfolds. When we examine the share mark, we can see that 2025 marked the start of higher volatility, and 2026 represents a major turning point, as does the Directional Change.

Two markets that are also influenced by war are obviously gold and crude oil. Our target for gold in 2026 remains in the 3900-4150 zone. Note that June has been the target, as we would then move into July. We have a Panic Cycle in gold during August.

When we examine our War Index, indeed, June has been our target for the start, with both a Directional Change and a Panic Cycle. Note that we have August/September as a key target, followed by a Panic Cycle in January.

This incident extends far beyond the Middle East. Tensions are rising everywhere, even between Thailand and Cambodia. War, historically, has been a contagion in and of itself. This is what we are looking at, and my deep concern is that the American-European Neocons have not just poked the bear, but have also disturbed the dragon. Both Putin and Xi Jinping are NOT the war mongers. But Russia and China also have their Neocons. My concern is that both can be marginalized, and then the nameless powers behind the throne instigate their emotional responses. Iran will not be allowed to fall without a fight. They are backed by Russia and, perhaps more so right now, by China.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/middle_east/the-middle-east-war-2025/