WW3 Approaches
2022:
Sometime last year God said to me, "Something will be wrong with the defense system of the United States, Moscow is coming in a storm".
Sorting Out October 5th Target - Russia, Russia, Russia!
Tuesday, September 1, 2026 By: Martin Armstrong
I have shown that we have a major correlation worldwide for the week of October 5th. Trying to sort out what the hell this might be appears to come back to NATO vs Russia, and perhaps Zelensky gets his wish - war with Russia drawing in the USA just as Netanyahu cleverly got Trump to fund his war against Iran. I am sending this to the White House in hopes it gets through to President Trump, but I have my doubts.
The next Russian State Duma election is scheduled for September 18 to 20, 2026. This will be a three-day voting period to elect the 9th convocation of the Duma. The current 8th convocation, elected in 2021, is completing its five-year term. Under the Russian Constitution, the new Duma would not take office later than October 18, 2026, which is 30 days after the final day of the election.
My review of the Russian Constitution reveals that the State Duma must convene its first sitting on the 30th day after the election. Since the election took place over three days (September 18–20), the 30th day is calculated from September 20, 2026, which is October 18, 2026.
President Putin can call the first meeting earlier than the 30-day mark. For example, following the 2021 election, the first session was called for October 12, which was earlier than the full 30 days. It will ultimately depend on the President's official decree.
Last year the pitch was that Russia would invade by 2029-2030. Suddenly they have shifted to a matter of weeks. This corresponds to Zelensky admitting that all his attacks on Moscow and inside Russia are to influence the September elections. He cannot be this stupid to think somehow that will cause the Duma to surrender. He has to know what I know. These attacks will bring the hardliners to the Duma, and this is clearly intended to poke the bear, deliberately seeking to create World War III. This is why Ratcliffe flew to Moscow in an emergency, trying to convey that the American ruthless Neocons will honor their NATO agreement and enter war with Russia. That foolish tactic will bring China and North Korea into the game, and the US is already depleted conventionally and will be no match for this combination of adversaries.
I have warned so many times that these warmongers NEVER think beyond their next step. They are linear thinkers who can NEVER see the world as a whole or connect the dots. They are always single-minded, focused on one goal only, and never consider what if they are wrong. Iraq proved that, as has been the case with Iran; killing the Ayatollah did not win the war in one day, as Netanyahu told Trump. IRGC is really in charge now, and the power is no longer in the hands of the civil government or the Ayatollah. The hardcore military are now in charge. The Neocons took out Saddam, and that unleashed terrorism and ISIS chopping off heads. They took out the head of Syria, and now it is shaping up to be a new battleground between Turkey and Israel as early as 2027.
I warned that the NATO model makes a major turn on September 2nd, 2026. They will become much more aggressive, and we should expect false flags to justify World War III. These European governments are on the brink of a major financial crash, and they desperately need to create an external enemy to retain unity within the EU and prevent states from leaving. Iceland just rejected the EU. As of September 1st, we see the beginning of false flags coming from Germany. German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt has claimed that an attempted drone attack in Leipzig was from Moscow. "Taken together, police investigations, patterns of attack, and intelligence findings point to Russian responsibility for the attempted attack at Leipzig Airport," the minister said on Tuesday in Berlin. "The German government therefore concludes that Russia is responsible for the hybrid attack in Leipzig on August 4."
Ukrainian airline Antonov Airlines has based six of its massive AN-124 transport aircraft at Leipzig. These planes are among the largest in the world and are chartered for military transport, including delivering ammunition for the Ukrainian military. This is a claimed "attempted" attack; they offer no proof, just accusations. In their minds, that's good enough to destroy all of Europe.
We have the world's worst leaders in human history determined to bring the world into a final battle. Thomas Jefferson saw war as a part of nature and something that could be just and necessary, but ONLY as a final option. The Neocons try to block any discussion whatsoever with their adversary, for that might lead to peace. They are like the Roman who loved watching gladiators kill each other. This gives them enjoyment.
Governments never learn from history, not from ignorance, but because their institutional structure makes it impossible. As I have said many times, "there are no mirrors in government." Unlike individuals who can reflect on past mistakes, administrations are transient—they change, and each new administration has no collective memory. The patterns of history are clear, and leaders see them, but the lessons never stick because the institutional memory is constantly reset.
Diving deeper, a cold, psychopathic calculus of power emerges: political survival is prioritized over historical wisdom. Leaders know sanctions historically fail to achieve regime change and instead strengthen adversaries, yet they impose them anyway because it looks decisive in the moment. They know empires collapse under endless debt, unchecked migration, and wars fought for profit, yet they repeat the cycle because the alternative—restraint—doesn't win elections.
My observations are ultimately structural: governments are not designed to learn. They are designed to preserve power over the great unwashed. And as long as the ability to create money and wage war remains the foundation of political control, the same mistakes will be made again and again. History is not a lesson—it is a pattern that will keep repeating until the system collapses, as it always has, precisely on schedule.
Zelensky has been deliberately seeking to undermine Russia for a potential NATO invasion - their lifelong dream. They remain tormented that Communism fell and they did not get to shoot anybody. They do not explain why Russia would want to conquer Europe, as it has nothing of value to make it a strategically valuable military target. During the Cold War, it was Communism vs Capitalism. I know that when Reagan wanted to meet with Gorbachev, the Neocons were having kanipsions. They could not say he was a communist, so they said you can NEVER trust a Russian. The Necons refuse to seek peace with Russia regardless of how they changed and became capitalist, the same as Netanyahu will never agree to peace with Iran. There is no more resolution to this Ukraine war against Russians than there is between Israel and Iran. These are ethnic hatreds. In both cases, Netanyahu and Zelensky are perfectly fine with wholesale genocide.
The Russian ECM since the fall of the USSR: the key turning point was May 2026. This correlated with our forecast that NATO would become very aggressive and now wage war on Russia. NATO is seeking war with Russia, and as of May 3, 2023, this is widely marked as Zelensky's first serious strike on Moscow. Drones reportedly exploded above the Kremlin itself, signaling a new phase in the conflict, all with the blessing of NATO. If NATO disapproved, they would have instructed Zelensky to stand down. They cheer, trying to destroy Russia, for this is their lifelong purpose - war. The Cold War peaked in 1983. This is 43 years now into 2026 - half the fractal target of 86 years.
Comment from Poland
Tuesday, August 18, 2026 By: Martin Armstrong
Dear Mr. Armstrong,
Thank you for your consistent work with the Economic Confidence Model, your detailed forecasts, and your long-standing efforts to warn against policies that could escalate into a wider conflict or World War III. Your independent analysis is always worth reading carefully, even when one does not fully share the same conclusions.
I am writing in response to your recent private-blog post “War with Russia within weeks?”. You approach the question primarily from an American perspective that is highly critical of neoconservative influence and tends to view Russia as more sinned against than sinning. From the vantage point of Eastern Europe—particularly Poland—the picture looks different, and I would like to share a brief summary of recent U.S. intelligence assessments and analyses by former senior Polish military officers and intelligence specialists. These are not presented as definitive predictions, but as a perspective grounded in regional experience and history.
U.S. intelligence (including CIA-related assessments, as reported by the Wall Street Journal and others around 6–7 August 2026): New American intelligence assessments indicate that President Putin could attempt a limited attack or provocation against a NATO member as early as this autumn 2026 and through 2029. The goal would be to test NATO’s (and especially the United States’) resolve under Article 5, fracture the alliance, reduce Western support for Ukraine, and claim a “victory” amid battlefield stagnation and Ukrainian long-range strikes. Possible scenarios range from cyber-attacks and unmarked armed groups (“little green men”) to hybrid strikes on critical infrastructure (drones, missiles) or a limited land incursion on the eastern flank (Baltic states, Poland, Suwałki Gap). A full-scale conventional invasion is assessed as low-probability but rising over time. This marks a shift from earlier U.S. views that Russia would not risk confronting NATO while still heavily engaged in Ukraine. The assessments coincide with growing incidents (missiles and drones entering Polish, Romanian and German airspace) and the reported construction of Russian long-range drone bases that can reach Polish territory.
Analyses by Polish generals and former intelligence officers: - Gen. Leon Komornicki** (former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces) argues that Russia has been conducting a long-term hybrid war against Poland and NATO for roughly 25 years (demoralisation → destabilisation → limited conventional conflict). Recent unpunished tests (cruise missiles and drones over Polish territory) are seen as deliberate probes that have “given Putin a green light.” He stresses the absence of a coherent NATO hybrid-warfare doctrine and the need for Poland to strengthen its own capabilities (Article 3 of the Washington Treaty) rather than rely solely on collective defence. -Gen. Brig. (ret.) Grzegorz Grodzki** (former commander of the 6th Airborne Brigade) highlights serious risks of an assault on critical infrastructure—especially the energy sector e.g. by UAV. He argues that any serious provocation should be met with a determined response. -Maj. (ret.) Robert Cheda** (former operational and analytical officer of the Polish Intelligence Agency focused on the East) maintains that Poland is the primary target of Russian sabotage, disinformation and hybrid operations. Without a stable Poland there is no effective eastern flank of NATO and no credible European mobilisation against Russia. He warns of intensified diversionary actions, false-flag possibilities and internal destabilization aimed at paralysing logistics support for Ukraine and dividing Western unity.
Causal chain and possible consequences according to these sources: -Russia, under pressure from Ukrainian strikes and limited gains, may escalate hybrid pressure into a calibrated kinetic test on the eastern flank in order to force Western hesitation, split NATO, and improve its negotiating position. Poland and NATO would need rapid, unambiguous responses (air-defense engagement, infrastructure hardening, possible retaliation options). -A hesitant reaction could encourage further probes; a firm one could raise the risk of broader escalation. -Internally, the Kremlin would likely use any external confrontation to consolidate power and control. -For the war in Ukraine the effect would be either reduced Western aid, division within NATO (if the probe succeeds politically) or reinforced resolve (if it fails).
Other Polish analysts including experts in geopolitics point to weakening US position as result of getting stucked in Iran (depleted armor with years to replenish), a need for Vladimir Putin to show success, regain the internal support before elections and turn the fate of the war. Some point out that it could be using e.g. Ukrainian drones for such attacks of the polish critical targets.
From the perspective of Eastern Europeans, Russia is not an “innocent” actor. We cannot afford to place trust in a state whose modern history repeatedly demonstrates expansionist behaviour when it perceives weakness. A concrete reminder: on 17 September 1939 the Soviet Union invaded Poland from the east, implementing the secret protocol of the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and thereby joining the Second World War as an aggressor alongside Nazi Germany. That historical fact is not ancient history for us; it shapes a durable regional assessment of Russian intentions and reliability.
I am curious whether, in light of the U.S. intelligence shift and the analyses of experienced Polish officers who have studied Russian operational art for decades, you see any plausibility in a limited hybrid-to-kinetic probe scenario on NATO’s eastern flank this autumn or in the coming years. Your model has repeatedly highlighted cycles of geopolitical tension; does this particular risk fit within those cycles, or do you regard the current warnings as primarily the product of Western policy failures?
Thank you again for your work and for maintaining an independent voice. I would value any thoughts you may care to share.
With best regards, SK
REPLY: I believe what is taking place is that Zelensky is under orders to attack inside Russia, knowing that the September election will then result in a more hawkish Duma. I know that Putin has tried to avoid war with NATO. I have even been given direct briefings.There is a division in Europe as well as in the USA between war and peace. I fear the war side is winning.
The problem with hybrid attacks is that they can be faked. That was the case with claims of Russia hacking the US 2016 elections; that was all proven to be nonsense. The Democrats will not admit that, but even the dossier that they used against Trump was fake.
I believe this shift from years to just weeks revolves around the September elections. They know the objective is to influence the Russian elections to create war. They are pitching thatit is now just weeks, and that is all about the Election.
Putin is a practical man, and he knows that this will lead to a nuclear war. I would be concerned about the elections and even more concerned if he were removed.
The Russian people do not want war with Europe or the USA any more than the average person in the EU or USA.
I have also spoken with military generals in the US, and they quickly resort to nuclear weapons. I fear your generals are no different, and they will NEVER advocate peace. This is just the bias in all military sectors. The old story is that when you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
I believe they are using Zelensky to create war. I was told that when he was elected, he was hand-selected to start WWIII.This is not winnable. Russia would push the button rather than be conquered. Ukraine has come out and boasted that Moscow will fall. If Moscow falls, so will the West.
We do not have any rational people in charge. And as I have said many times, they NEVER look long-term, like Tony Blair's apology for removing Saddam, and they thought they were freeing the people, but never anticipated that they would open the door to sectarian violence.
In Iran, they sold the idea of killing the Ayatollah, and they would win in a day. They cannot see anything beyond the end of their nose.
President Reagan was the ONLY one to stand up to the Neocons. He met with Gorbachev and said he was not there to start a war but to end one.
War with Russia in Weeks?
Tuesday, August 18, 2026 By: Martin Armstrong
I had a very disturbing weekend. This was one of those weekends when I question why the hell I put myself into this field. The Neocons within the intelligence agencies are desperately pushing for war with Russia to save their retirement home - NATO. They have changed their claims that Russia will invade Europe by 2029 to like Netanyahu's classic bullshit line: Russia will now invade in a matter of weeks. I don't think these Neocons will be able to do that, but they may create some sort of false flag to justify war. I sent a letter to Trump, but I received no reply this time- anything. I suspect the Neocons are now intercepting anything I send to him.
When I was called in to give a briefing and then asked to write the peace plan to present to Putin, I thought it was very strange to have me circumvent the State Department. I asked if this was sanctioned; I was told yes, and President Trump sent me a letter thanking me for my work. I was told that they agreed with me that we would not be at war with Russia. Under such conditions, I was happy to participate.
The forecast array from October last year showed a Panic Cycle in June 2026. That did indeed mark the shift in trend ending the decline in the dollar against the ruble, which is another sign that capital began to shift, perhaps with some planning for war this August/September 2026. The Neocons are desperate to create war with Russia, for Europe is about to enter a serious economic crisis, and Brussels is keenly aware that to retain power, they need an external enemy.
Some people have questioned me on this incentive for war. I suppose they do not know their military history. The Roman historian Gaius Sallustius Crispus, commonly known as Sallust (c. 86–c. 35BC), was a renowned historian and politician from a plebeian family rather than an aristocrat, writing in the 1st century BC, argued that the destruction of Rome's great rival Carthage in 146BC was the turning point marking the downfall of the Roman Republic. He believed that with no powerful external enemy to fear (metus hostilis), Roman citizens lost their unity and discipline, leading to internal discord and moral decay.
The Neocons and NATO deliberately obstructed peace with Russia to preserve their relevance and protect military budgets. I saw internal memos that reflected a state of panic using the words: "How do we remain relevant?" While the publicly stated goals focused on building a new European security order, NATO's expansion and the shift to a "war on terror" served to maintain the alliance's institutional purpose.
The "Peace Dividend" and institutionalism became the enemy of the Neocons and NATO. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the primary threat that defined NATO's purpose vanished. Traditional theory suggested the alliance would dissolve. However, instead of disbanding, NATO underwent a significant transformation. It expanded its membership from 16 to 32 countries, as Russia sought to regain its former empire and invade former Warsaw Pact countries to retain power and increase revenue. NATO shifted its mission from "collective defense" to include crisis management, expeditionary warfare, and counter-terrorism. This allowed the alliance to remain relevant, moving from a "threat-driven" organization to a "mechanism-driven" one, where its own institutional structures created a "path dependency" that made dissolving it costly.
Obstructing Peace with Russia became the mandate working against governments. NATO effectively defined European security against Russia rather than peace with Russia. The failure to create a more inclusive pan-European security structure, such as one centered around the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), was seen as a missed opportunity that intensified the security dilemma. NATO became an obstacle to a new European security order, leaving Russia "on the outside of an expanding system centered on Washington" all to remain relevant.
This expansion occurred despite early cooperation, including the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act, though relations deteriorated sharply after NATO's intervention in Kosovo in 1999, and it was entering that war because of Madeleine Albright, who was another ruthless Neocon from Czechoslovakia and hated Russia for the Communist regime, despite that having collapsed. She was intent on killing Serbs because they were still pro-Russia. I had the displeasure of meeting her at some Washington Party years ago. I got the impression that she was another Neocon consumed with hatred.
The Neocons are desperate. They have escalated their warnings of war with Russia dramatically. They have Trump in full war mode, even threatening Oman. They know Trump refused to lose, so they have got him by the short hairs, locked into a Middle East War that he cannot win, and they know it. They are working at lightspeed to create an army of robots to fight wars. They may kill me for this, but I don't give a shit anymore. The Neocons have been directing secret projects to deploy 100,000 humanoid robots for military and strategic operations. This marks a historic shift in modern warfare, signaling the dawn of AI-powered combat forces.
Ukraine has gone public and claims it will have humanoid soldiers within one year. This program is moving at lightspeed because NATO knows there is resistance to drafting in Europe, and Carney in Canada's push behind closed doors to line up with the EU and to instigate a draft in Canada to go die for his globalist agenda is also in play. Indeed, warfare is becoming a sci-fi movie like Terminator. This is their dream of ultimate power that they seek to retain at all costs.
Historical evidence suggests that major military campaigns and invasions have more frequently begun in spring or summer rather than winter. I do not know if it will ever be possible to keep these people out of powerful positions. It seems we may need a personality test to cull out people who start wars because of a personality defect.
The #1 duty of a government is to AVOID war – not engage in war. I was in DC, and when Reagan wanted to meet with Gorbachev, they could no longer say he was a communist, so the Neocon narrative was to advise Reagan – “You can never trust a Russian.” This is what Europe is following. Not a single European leader has even been willing to negotiate with Putin, who has offered peace countless times. They listen to the Neocons, who have NEVER won a single one of their endless wars. The Neocons ALWAYS tell these incompetent leaders never to talk to their opponents because they might avoid war and find peace. As long as you never talk, then they get their objective – WAR! I've been in the middle of too many things I often wish I'd never seen.
I have done my best to try to beat my own computer forecasts. I always lose. August has been coming up for over a year. Most markets are showing turning points in the last week of August and the first week of September.
Yet, even in market activity, there's a mysterious pattern where investment trends shift to liquidation trends at the end of summer. Do wars and market liquidations somehow influence seasonal trends? Currently, the rise in the Dow also appears likely, with the major resistance at the 55000 level. I question whether we will actually go to war just yet. But the Neocons have clearly shifted their rhetoric from years to weeks. Putin would not start a war with NATO because he is bogged down in Ukraine. That would make no strategic sense. This is the Neocons looking to justify invading Russia, as I have been warning, is the sacred goal for the last few years. My sources say they are afraid that Vance would win in 2028, so they have moved up their schedule to create war ASAP.
Even the dollar shows rising volatility here in 2026 but a Directional Change in 2027, with eventually a Panic Cycle in 2030. Like Vietnam, the Neocons will create serious inflation and undermine the world economy. I have stated at previous WECs, that the US dollar as we know it may not exist post-2029. This will most likely be the massive increase in the cost of these Neocon endless wars. They are traitors to the people.
Historically, August has been a significant period for war, just as Sepetember often produces major highs or marks the start of market crashes, like in 1929. Many have pondered the August/September time period for political and financial upheavals. For example, here is just a brief overview of when stock markets began to crash or peaked and started falling in September, similar to 1929:
1929 – Great Depression Prelude: September 3, 1929: The Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked.
1987 – Black Monday Prelude: Late September 1987, markets became volatile, with signs of strain building, followed by a crash on October 19, 1987.
2000 – Dot-Com Bubble Deflation: The Nasdaq had already started declining in March 2000, but many tech stocks began sharper declines again in September as earnings missed and sentiment turned negative.
2001 – Post-9/11 Crash: It began on September 17, 2001 (markets reopened after 9/11); major indices fell 7–14% that week.
2008 – Global Financial Crisis Escalation: Lehman Brothers collapsed on September 15, 2008.
2022 – Inflation & Rate Hike Driven Decline: After a bear market rally in summer, markets reversed sharply in mid-September due to inflation and Fed rate hike signals. The September 13, 2022 CPI report triggered a 4–5% drop in one day, one of the worst days in years.
When it Comes to War:
The "Guns of August" is a phrase popularized by historian Barbara Tuchman about World War I. Nevertheless, we have a database of 2000+ wars separate from civil unrest. A pattern appears to be linked to geography and climate.
In the Northern Hemisphere's temperate zone (latitudes 30–60 degrees north), the LOW in the outbreak of wars is January, rising to a peak in August, before declining again.
In the Southern Hemisphere's temperate zone, the pattern is reversed: the peak for war outbreaks is in December, January, and February, corresponding to its summer months.
Near the equator, where there is little seasonal change, wars are equally likely to start in any month.
This suggests the seasonal pattern is clearly linked to climate and day length. Historically, wars began after the main grain harvest in late summer to ensure full granaries to feed the troops. For military planners, good summer and early autumn weather was also preferable for campaigns, as spring and fall rains could turn roads into mud and make advancement difficult.
Following List of Wars:
World War I (August 1, 1914): The global conflict began when Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, following the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. This triggered a chain reaction of alliances, leading to a world war. Germany declared war on Russia on August 1st, 1914.
Gulf War (August 2, 1990): Iraq, under Saddam Hussein, invaded Kuwait, prompting a U.S.-led coalition response. The conflict escalated quickly with Operation Desert Shield and later Desert Storm.
Seven Years’ War (August 29, 1756): Often considered a global conflict, it began with Frederick the Great of Prussia’s invasion of Saxony, drawing in major European powers and their colonies.
Many significant battles have occurred in August throughout history. Of course, the most famous was none other than the Battle of Thermopylae (480 BC, August) when the legendary stand of 300 Spartans under King Leonidas against the Persian army led by Xerxes in Greece.
The Battle of Cannae (August 2nd, 216 BC) saw Hannibal’s Carthaginian army annihilate a much larger Roman force in one of history’s most significant tactical victories in military history.
The Battle of Actium was when Octavian/Augustus defeated Mark Antony and Cleopatra. They were preparing for the battle in late August and the final battle took place on September 2nd, 31BC . This was the end of the Roman Republic, and Octavian emerged as Augustus, giving birth to imperial Rome.
There was the Battle of Maserfield (642AD, August 5), which was fought near present-day Oswestry in Shropshire, England. It was a significant conflict between the Anglo-Saxon kingdoms of Northumbria and Mercia. The battle weakened Northumbria, leading to its temporary division into Bernicia and Deira. Mercia, under Penda, emerged as a dominant power in central England.
Then there was the famous Battle of Hastings (1066AD, October 14, but with August preparations), when William the Conqueror’s invasion began taking shape in August with Norman forces gathering.
The Battle of Bosworth Field (1485AD, August 22): Decisive battle of the Wars of the Roses, where Henry Tudor defeated Richard III, becoming King Henry VII of England.
The Battle of Blenheim (1704AD, August 13), was a significant victory for the Grand Alliance (comprising England, Austria, and the Netherlands) against the French and Bavarian forces during the War of the Spanish Succession. This battle marked a turning point in the war, demonstrating the vulnerability of the French army and ensuring the safety of Vienna from invasion. It was a significant victory for the Grand Alliance (led by John Churchill, Duke of Marlborough) against France in the War of the Spanish Succession.
The Battle of Tannenberg (1914AD, August 26–30) was a significant conflict during World War I, fought between August 23 and August 30, 1914, in East Prussia (now Poland). It involved the German Eighth Army against the Russian First and Second Armies. World War I battle where Germany defeated Russia on the Eastern Front.
The Battle of Stalingrad (August 23, 1942 – February 2, 1943) was a major World War II battle between Nazi Germany and its allies against the Soviet Union for control of Stalingrad (now Volgograd), a key industrial and strategic city on the Volga River. It is considered one of the bloodiest and most decisive battles in history. A turning point in World War II, where Soviet forces eventually defeated the German army after brutal fighting.
The atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki occurred on August 6, 1945, and August 9, 1945, respectively, during World War II. The United States dropped the first atomic bomb, “Little Boy,” on Hiroshima at approximately 8:15 AM local time, followed by the second bomb, “Fat Man,” on Nagasaki at around 11:02 AM local time.
On August 15th, 1920, this was when Communist Russia invaded newly independent Poland, and they defeated what many assumed was an invincible Red Army. This was the Battle of Warsaw, the free world’s first significant victory over communism. Poles refer to this victory as the “Miracle on the Vistula.”
The Warsaw Uprising, which began on August 1, 1944, was a major World War II operation by the Polish underground resistance of some 40,000, led by the Home Army (Armia Krajowa), to liberate Warsaw from Nazi German occupation. It lasted 63 days (until October 2, 1944) and was known as Operation “Tempest” (Burza).
Iran Nukes & Manipulation the Elections
Tuesday, August 11, 2026 By: Martin Armstrong
Behind closed doors, Iran seems to be hinting that they a nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce one if it chooses to do so. International experts and reports indicate that while Iran has enriched uranium, it has not yet developed a deliverable nuclear warhead. They seem to be hinting that it has changed. If true, this changes everything and sends a torpedo to both Trump's midterms and Netanyahu's Oct 27th reelection bid.
Iran deliberately manipulated the timing of the hostage crisis to hurt President Jimmy Carter's reelection campaign, though this was part of a broader strategy to humiliate him and extract concessions, not necessarily just to embarrass him. The Iranians were acutely aware of American politics and used the hostages as a powerful lever.
The 52 American hostages were held for 444 days, from November 1979 to January 1981. The Carter administration's inability to secure their release became a central and damaging issue in the 1980 election, with Carter's poll numbers plummeting as the crisis dragged on.
This is the object of Iran, and this is to perhaps overthrow Netanyahu more so than undermine just Trump. I would NOT expect any peace plan, for this is the real objective here that seems to be completely overlooked in the mainstream press.
The Middle East Crisis Turning Against USA
Monday, August 10, 2026 By: Martin Armstrong
Iraqi proxies of Iran have not regained all their former strength. They have demonstrated significant operational capabilities and now present political and strategic threats. These militias, under the umbrella group "Islamic Resistance in Iraq," have been highly active and retain substantial military resources that have been ignored by mainstream media. In March 2026, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed 291 drone and missile attacks against "occupation bases" over 12 days. At another point, they claimed 23 operations in just 24 hours. They now also have strategic stockpiles of missiles and drones that remain highly abundant and sustainable, with production said to occur in simple, fast, and low-cost workshops. They are responsible for killing about 600 Americans over the course of their operations.
In June 2026, Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) established 3 to 4 new covert cells in Iraq, consisting of about 10 elite fighters each. These cells, reporting directly to the IRGC, have been used for drone attacks on Gulf countries hosting U.S. forces, suggesting an adaptation to preserve Iran's force projection capability.
Netanyahu has sucked in Americans to fight his war, and this is quickly becoming the same quagmire that Jimmy Carter found himself in with the 1979 Revolution. As we can see from the timing array, here too we have a Directional Change in August, high volatility in September, and a Panic Cycle in October.
Despite the best efforts of President Trump to try to exit Netanyahu's unwinnable war on Islam, our computer from the outset has warned this would NOT be another Venezuela. I understand the Neocons are always desperate to keep me far away from Trump to prevent me or my computer from raining on the parade. These people to me are treasonous. They usurp American foreign policy for their personal ambitions. The objective now is to push the United States completely out of the Middle East.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) exists in name only. Saudi Arabia is turning from the US and Israel, aligning with Turkey and Pakistan, while the UAE and Bahrain are aligned with the USA and Israel. Iran has already won. They have destroyed the GCC. Iran and Pakistan are not formally aligned in a military alliance against Israel. Instead, their relationship in this context is best described as one where Pakistan plays the role of a diplomatic intermediary, grounded in a shared opposition to Israel's policies, but stops short of a full military partnership.
Pakistan has stated its nuclear capability is solely for deterrence against India. Official statements typically frame it as a matter of "national security" rather than a tool to defend other countries. Pakistan has not issued an "official" warning to Israel that it would use nuclear weapons in response to an Israeli strike on Iran. However, this idea exists in public discussions and seems to often stem from the Pakistani military blogosphere and social media. This tends to skirt any "official" threat, but it makes it clear that there is concern regarding this issue.
When we look across the entire region, we do not see a major Middle East War just yet. There is clearly a shift in trend that is beginning here in August. This seems to be escalating from October into early 2027 with the next ECM turning point in February. Keep in mind that there is no love-loss between UAE and Saudi Arabia.
The European Fiscal & Debt Crisis Coming to a Head
Saturday, July 11, 2026 By: Martin Armstrong
I have warned that the EU is in a fiscal crisis, and this is the primary reason why they are desperate for war with Russia as a distraction and ultimately an excuse for the collapse of their debt markets and a fiscal reset with a new currency and default on their debts, as was the case in 1931. The complete collapse of European debt appears by 2034. That will be the real Great Reset. Klaus was trying to push this into his dream of a one-world government.
The German 2026 budget reveals record borrowing, collapsing welfare math, and the unraveling of Germany’s austerity legacy. Keep in mind that Germany accounts for about 25% od the EU GDP. Italy's GDP growth has already collapsed to 0.5%. The more they talk up war with Russia as inevitable, the more investment is fleeing the EU, mainly into the dollar. As you can see, the Euro has been in a long-term decline. The failure to consolidate debts has left the Euro vulnerable; if any member state is plunged into a fiscal crisis, it becomes a contagion that impacts everyone.
Germany’s federal cabinet has passed the 2026 budget, authorizing €174.3 billion in new borrowing—the largest in the country’s postwar history. This reflects what I have been warning about.
The increase, masked by off‑budget vehicles and special funds, represents a dramatic departure from the constitutional debt brake and the long-standing commitment to fiscal discipline. The health insurance system is running a €47 billion deficit, with no structural reforms announced. Instead, government officials confirmed that the shortfall will be covered through additional borrowing and reallocations from special purpose funds.
Germany’s five statutory health insurers, already strained by rising costs and demographic shifts, face insolvency warnings from internal reports issued earlier in 2025. This has only been accelerated by the massive influx of migrants that contribute nothing but consume everything. Social contributions now consume 42.5% of gross worker income, yet fail to stabilize the pension, unemployment, and long-term care systems. The pension fund alone is projected to require €128 billion in federal top-ups by 2026, nearly double its 2018 level. Despite this, no increase in the retirement age. There is no planned overhaul of the contribution base in the 2026 fiscal framework.
The €520.5 billion spending plan marks a 10% increase over 2025 levels, while the structural deficit continues to widen. Berlin has turned to creative accounting methods, including transferring liabilities to off‑budget infrastructure and energy transition funds, to bypass legal borrowing caps. This is all thanks to Zelensky blowing up the Nordstream pipeline to hurt Russia with no regard for not just Germany, but the entire economic consequences for the EU. These special funds now total more than €900 billion in cumulative debt obligations. We see that the market may ignore this a little longer, but as war brews for 2027, we see the fiscal crisis worsening post-2027, with a risk of collapse by 2032.
Germany’s debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise to 73.8% by Q4 2026, up from 64.3% in early 2024, reversing years of post-euro-crisis consolidation. But as the EU's overall GDP declines, that ratio rises even without new debt. However, this is really meaningless. The proper way to look at this is the cost of sustaining the bureaucracy itself. The cost of government in the USA, as a percentage of GDP, is about 35%. In Germany, the cost of "government itself" accounts for a very large share of the economy. In 2025, total public spending (at all levels of government) was estimated at 50.5% of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). There is also a notable concept known as the "discretionary share" of the budget, the portion that the government of the day can freely allocate to new policies. This is estimated to be quite small, at around 16%. That is huge!
Core inflation remains above 3.1%, driven in part by public sector wage hikes and energy subsidies embedded in the special fund structure. Defense spending, shielded from debt-brake limits by the €100 billion Bundeswehr fund, will increase to €75 billion in 2026. Long-term projections suggest a €161.8 billion annual defense budget by 2029, accounting for more than 3.5% of GDP.
Labor force participation remains stagnant, with immigration-fueled population growth failing to offset a shrinking native workforce. The Federal Employment Agency warned in June that job market integration costs for new arrivals had surpassed €11 billion annually.
In its current form, the 2026 budget signals a full reversal of Germany’s past role as the Eurozone’s fiscal disciplinarian. The same government that once imposed austerity benchmarks on southern European economies now finds itself relying on expanded borrowing, stealth taxation, and unsustainable welfare spending to stay afloat.
The Bundestag is expected to begin formal debate on the budget package in September, with votes scheduled for final adoption before December. No alternative fiscal framework has been presented.
In Britain, Andy Burnham is set to become the UK's next prime minister on July 20, 2026, after Labor MPs formally nominated him to replace Keir Starmer. He will be the seventh prime minister in a decade and the first to take office without a general election since 2016. He has proposed a 50% tax rate on income over £65,000 and has long advocated shifting the tax burden from work to wealth. He proposes eliminating the capital gains tax and taxing capital gains at the same income tax rate. Labour always sees the answer as raising taxes and never looks at any possible reform whatsoever.
The UK's Budget DeficitThe UK is running a significant budget deficit. The UK's public finances are in a challenging position. The budget deficit is high and has been growing. Data for the first two months of the 2026/27 financial year show the deficit reached £46.3 billion, £8.9 billion higher than the same period a year earlier and £7.7 billion more than budgeted. This is driven by spending increases that have outpaced tax receipts, with interest payments on debt alone rising by 16%. S&P Global projects the deficit will be 4.7% of GDP in 2026. The massive influx of migrants living off the working class is the real crisis that led to Starmer's resignation. This does not seem to be understood even by Burnham.
The government is currently planning a very ambitious fiscal consolidation to turn a £76 billion current budget deficit into a £30 billion surplus by 2031. This explains the intense political focus on tax hikes and spending. Ignored, of course, is the cost of war and continuing support for Zelensky in this proxy war with Russia. There is evidence that Andy Burnham sees a 50% tax rate as a viable option, but he also has to reconcile it with other commitments. But eliminating capital gains will send capital offshore.
This creates a direct tension. Labour's 2024 manifesto promised not to raise income tax, National Insurance, or VAT. Burnham has repeatedly stated he will stick to this pledge. However, commentators point out he might still break this promise, as the government has already effectively done so by raising other taxes.
Burnham's fiscal thinking goes beyond a single rate hike. He and his advisors are looking at a more fundamental overhaul of the UK tax system. The central theme of Burnham's economic philosophy is that the UK "over-taxes labour" and "under-taxes... assets". This suggests he may prefer to raise revenue from wealth rather than work.
His team is exploring several major changes, including, Property Tax Reform: Replacing council tax and stamp duty with a proportional property tax or a land value tax. That is in addition to increasing CGT (Capital Gains Tax) to bring it closer to income tax rates, hitting investors and landlords.
A radical proposal from economists advising him to merge income tax, National Insurance, and other taxes into a single system. Our computer still sees that the British pound is at risk of at least retesting the 1985 low of $1.03 in 2027, if not breaking that level. The combination of Burnham's insane tax policies, combined with the risk of war in 2027, does not project optimism for the UK as we move toward 2032.
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Ukraine Beware of September
Thursday, July 9, 2026 By: Martin Armstrong
The Ukrainian currency has been a perpetual short since 1998, and nothing has changed since. The central bank tried to fix the currency in August 2022, and the effort lasted until September 2023. It is still on target to escalate into 2029. Our model showed that the currency has been flatlining since 2022. Our model confirmed that volatility would rise in 2026. Ukraine's new aggressive posture is on target. But this does NOT imply victory long-term.
Our first target for the Ukrainian currency was 41.84, which was reached in 2023. Our next target was 57, followed by 65. Ukraine is destined for complete disaster. NATO, Neocons, and the EU could care less about Ukraine or if a single Ukrainian will be left standing. This is a proxy war against Russia. The EU, NATO, and Britain have interfered consistently and instructed Zelensky not to accept any peace deal. Boris Johnson routinely flew to Ukraine to instruct Zelensky to reject any peace deal whatsoever.
Boris Johnson openly admitted: "We’re waging a proxy war but not giving our proxies the ability to do the job. For years now, we’ve been allowing them to fight with one hand tied behind their backs, and it has been cruel.” Russia has made Britain its number one enemy. That is not hard to understand between Johnson and Starmer, who just want war with Russia.
Multiple sources confirm that elections for the 9th State Duma are scheduled for September 20th, 2026, with voting taking place from September 18-20th. This will be the main domestic political event in Russia at the time. Putin was re-elected as President in March 2024 and was sworn in for a new six-year term on May 7th, 2024. His current term runs until 2030, so he is not up for re-election in 2026. As President, Putin has signed a decree setting the date for the September parliamentary elections and has been actively involved in discussions about the election campaign, particularly regarding security and the political climate.
Zelensky may get his wish. This war appears to be set to escalate in August/September. The risk is that more hard-liners will be elected who want Putin to take a tougher stance. The Kremlin has just announced that this is no longer a "special operation" to defend the Donbas. It has now been classified as war with Ukraine.
If Zelensky can provoke Putin into hitting anything in NATO or creating a false flag as he did by shooting a missile into Poland and claiming it was Russian, it is not out of the question. NATO has been planning to send 250,000 troops. The figure of approximately 250,000 troops appears in the context of planning for a potential peacekeeping or reassurance force. Yet even Germany is expanding and expects to be at war with Russia. They need this because they cannot service debts in Europe, and Italy's GDP growth collapsed to 0.5%.
Italy has formally requested access to a specific EU joint borrowing scheme called the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) fund. This program provides low-interest loans for joint defense procurement. The debt crisis in the EU is serious because there has been no consolidation of debt. This exposes the EU to a contagion, as was the case with Greece back in 2010. Any one member that cannot meet its debt obligations, as was the case with Greece, can bring down the entire Eurozone, especially in the face of war. This is the incentive for the EU to join the war, for they will then impose capital controls. That becomes the perfect excuse to default on debts as they did after the previous World Wars.
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Here we Go Into An Unwinnable War for 2027
Thursday, July 9, 2026 By: Martin Armstrong
GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK: THE IRAN CONFLICT EXTENDS THROUGH 2027
Date: July 8, 2026
Prepared for: Institutional Investors and Strategic Policy Analysts
Disclaimer: This report represents a scenario analysis based on the application of the Economic Confidence Model and historical cycle analysis. It is not a prediction for markets.
OVERVIEW
The Socrates indicates that the current conflict dynamics involving Iran, Israel, and the United States are not approaching a near-term resolution. Rather, our analysis points toward an extended timeline, with active hostilities persisting through 2027. This assessment is grounded in the convergence of politics in Israel and the US Midterms with political cycle dynamics, sovereign debt pressures, and historical war-cycle patterns that have accurately identified major inflection points since 1987.
The thesis is simple: war is not an accident; it is a political tool deployed when elites face an economic collapse or to retain political power that they can no longer manage through conventional means. I have repeatedly warned that war does not come in good times, when everyone is fat and happy. When the economy turns down, as it appears to be doing heading into 2028, this is the time for World War III, as brush fires appear not just in the Middle East but in Europe and Asia as well.
I. THE WAR CYCLE CONVERGES WITH THE DEBT CRISIS
The Socrates model has long identified a major geopolitical climax culminating in 2032, propelled by a sovereign debt and monetary crisis of historic proportions. The path to that culmination runs directly through the Middle East, with Iran serving as the primary flashpoint.
Our computer modeling, which has forecast every major crisis since 1987 with remarkable accuracy, now shows an alarming parallel with the 1930s. However, there is a critical distinction: in the 1930s, it was NOT a single nation confronting financial collapse. It was confined to Europe, the British Commonwealth, parts of Asia, and South America. Even Canada suspended its debt payments. Today, the entire Western financial architecture is facing simultaneous sovereign debt implosions, as everyone has borrowed since WWII with no intention of repaying.
The Economic Pressure Driving Conflict
The fundamental driver of extended war cycles is not ideology; it is mathematics. When governments can no longer service their debts and pension systems are structurally impaired, war becomes the preferred means of economic survival. This is being felt in thr EU right now.
Key indicators signaling this dynamic:
Indicator | Current Status | Historical Parallel |
Long-term interest rates | Rising sharply | 1914 & 1939 pre-war periods |
Sovereign debt sustainability | Critical | 1923 Germany; 1863 Confederacy |
Central bank control | Diminishing | Pre-collapse patterns |
Digital currency push | Accelerating | Desperation measure |
The elites have one remaining option when the economic model fails: war as a diversion from collapse.
II. THE TIMELINE: WHY 2027 IS THE FLOOR, NOT THE CEILING
Our cycle analysis indicates that the Iran conflict has been deliberately escalated along a schedule that aligns with broader geopolitical and economic objectives. The model shows:
Phase 1: Provocation (2024–2025)
Neocon elements within the Western political establishment actively sought to trigger a broader conflict before the 2024 U.S. election, seeing war as a political tool to maintain control.
Phase 2: Entrapment (2025)
Dramatic escalation patterns were projected to begin in July 2025, with intensifying waves in August and October of that year. This window aligned with the European sovereign debt panic cycle, suggesting deliberate coordination between military and financial pressures.
Phase 3: Entrenchment (2026–2027)
The current phase sees the conflict embedded in broader NATO-Russia dynamics. Reports from intelligence channels indicate planning for up to 250,000 NATO troops in Ukraine as part of a broader strategy to draw Russia into a direct confrontation. This is not a separate conflict; it is the same war cycle manifesting on multiple fronts. The Neocons believe they can conquer Russia. That has been their life-l;ong dream.
Iran and Russia are being treated as a single geopolitical problem by Western strategic planners, extending the timeline for resolution.
III. THE 2027 CONTINUATION SCENARIO
Our analysis points to several structural factors that will prevent de-escalation before 2028:
A. The Sovereign Debt Clock
The European debt crisis and the U.S. fiscal trajectory are both approaching critical inflection points in the 2026–2027 window. The Socrates model shows the U.S. war cycle and the European panic cycle both starting in 2026. The aftermath of this turning point is not a peak or resolution; it is the beginning. The war must continue to justify the financial restructuring that follows, which is the cancelling of debts and moving to a digital-monetary system with the elimination of paper money.
B. The Digital Currency Agenda
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are being positioned as the solution to the coming financial crisis. War provides the necessary cover for their implementation. As history demonstrates, populations under wartime conditions accept financial controls they would otherwise resist.
C. The "No Solution" Signal
Perhaps most tellingly, Socrates currently shows no viable path to a solution for the Western financial system within the current framework. When there is no economic solution, the only remaining option is to change the rules of the game through conflict.
IV. IMPLICATIONS FOR INVESTORS AND STRATEGIC PLANNERS
Energy Markets
Extended conflict through 2027 implies sustained volatility in oil and gas markets. Iran's position in the Strait of Hormuz cannot be separated from the broader conflict calculus.
Currency Markets
The war cycle directly correlates with patterns of dollar weakness post-2028. The historical precedent: wartime bond issuance destroys real returns, and the current trajectory suggests a repeat of that pattern.
Precious Metals
Our models continue to point toward precious metals as a critical hedge. The war cycle extension through 2027 reinforces this position. We can see from the Yearly Array on Gold that 2026 is a turning point and should provide the low. Things heat up from 2027 into 2032.
V. CONCLUSION
The Iran conflict will continue into 2027 not because of military necessity, but because of economic necessity. The elites who control the Western financial and political apparatus require an extended conflict to manage the sovereign debt collapse that the Socrates model has long predicted. On top of that, Netanyahu needs a victory for his October election. Nobody gives a shit about Trump's legacy. They have trapped him in an unwinnable war, and this will expand dramatically.
Our analysis finds no scenario in which de-escalation occurs before the sovereign debt crisis is fully addressed, and the debt crisis cannot be addressed without wartime financial controls.
The war will continue until the financial restructuring is complete. That process extends through 2027.
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